Ajman
vs
Baniyas SC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Ajman 2–1 Baniyas SC
The model makes it 45% Ajman, 26% draw, 29% Baniyas SC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ajman 1.78, Baniyas SC 1.32.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Ajman's rating is built from 32 UAE Pro League matches and Baniyas SC's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 406 matches.
Key facts
- Ajman are 7th on 9 points from 6 games; Baniyas SC are bottom on 1 point from 6 games — Pro League.
- Ajman have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Sharjah FC.
- Baniyas SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Al-Wasl FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 October 2026, ended Ajman 1–0 Baniyas SC.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ajman vs Baniyas SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajman at 45% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ajman vs Baniyas SC
Ajman
Pro League
- L1-3Sharjah FC18 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Ittihad Kalba11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al Nasr6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Jazira29 August 2026
- W4-3Hatta SC22 August 2026
Baniyas SC
Pro League
- L0-2Al-Wasl FC16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Khorfakkan11 September 2026
- L0-1Hatta SC5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Wahda FC30 August 2026
- L2-3Dubai United23 August 2026
What these results say
- Ajman conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajman had three goals or more.
- Ajman scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baniyas SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Baniyas SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajman vs Baniyas SC
- 9 October 2026Ajman 1–0 Baniyas SCLeague Cup
- 18 March 2026Ajman 1–1 Baniyas SCPro League
- 26 September 2025Baniyas SC 0–1 AjmanPro League
- 14 February 2025Ajman 2–3 Baniyas SCPro League
- 20 September 2024Baniyas SC 3–1 AjmanPro League
- 1 June 2024Baniyas SC 1–1 AjmanPro League
Leading scorers: Ajman and Baniyas SC
Ajman
GoalsAssists
- Victor Henrique31
- W. Azaro20
Baniyas SC
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ajman carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.21 for Baniyas SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Ajman and 1.32 for Baniyas SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ajman rate 0.62 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baniyas SC rate 0.47 and 1.71.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ajman a 0.1% chance of the title and Baniyas SC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajman the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Ajman against 1.32 for Baniyas SC. Ajman's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.71 for Baniyas SC.
How the model reaches 45% for Ajman to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ajman to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Ajman's ratings take away 26 points and Baniyas SC's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Ajman's ratings14%−26
- Baniyas SC's ratings45%+31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ajman at home · Baniyas SC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Ajman 6, Baniyas SC 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ajman
- at Shabab Al Ahli Dubai20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 15%
- vs Dubai United4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Khorfakkan13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Wasl FC26 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 23%
Baniyas SC
- vs Al Nasr21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 27%
- at Al-Dhafra5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 16%
- at Al-Ittihad Kalba24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.