Tractor Sazi
vs
Kheybar Khorramabad
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Tractor Sazi 2–0 Kheybar Khorramabad
The model makes it 62% Tractor Sazi, 22% draw, 16% Kheybar Khorramabad — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Tractor Sazi 2.20, Kheybar Khorramabad 0.85.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
One-sided: Tractor Sazi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Tractor Sazi's rating is built from 30 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Kheybar Khorramabad's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Tractor Sazi are 2nd on 20 points from 9 games; Kheybar Khorramabad are 7th on 14 points from 10 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Tractor Sazi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sanat Naft.
- Kheybar Khorramabad are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Gol Gohar.
- Last 3 meetings: Tractor Sazi 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 November 2025, ended Kheybar Khorramabad 2–1 Tractor Sazi.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tractor Sazi vs Kheybar Khorramabad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tractor Sazi at 62% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tractor Sazi vs Kheybar Khorramabad
Tractor Sazi
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W3-0Sanat Naft22 October 2026
- D1-1Esteghlal FC8 October 2026
- L0-1away to Esteghlal Khuzestan10 September 2026
- W1-0Gol Gohar5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shams Azar Qazvin1 September 2026
Kheybar Khorramabad
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W1-0away to Gol Gohar23 October 2026
- W2-1Esteghlal Khuzestan18 October 2026
- D0-0Persepolis FC14 October 2026
- D2-2away to Chadormalu SC9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nassaji Mazandaran7 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tractor Sazi had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 20 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tractor Sazi vs Kheybar Khorramabad
- 8 November 2025Kheybar Khorramabad 2–1 Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League
- 22 February 2025Tractor Sazi 1–0 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
- 22 September 2024Kheybar Khorramabad 1–2 Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League
The two sides
Tractor Sazi carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.42 for Kheybar Khorramabad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Tractor Sazi and 0.85 for Kheybar Khorramabad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tractor Sazi rate 0.78 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kheybar Khorramabad rate 0.72 and 1.73.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tractor Sazi a 35.1% chance of the title and Kheybar Khorramabad 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tractor Sazi the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Tractor Sazi against 0.85 for Kheybar Khorramabad. Tractor Sazi's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.73 for Kheybar Khorramabad.
How the model reaches 62% for Tractor Sazi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tractor Sazi to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Tractor Sazi's ratings take away 7 points and Kheybar Khorramabad's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Tractor Sazi's ratings37%−7
- Kheybar Khorramabad's ratings62%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tractor Sazi at home · Kheybar Khorramabad away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Tractor Sazi 9, Kheybar Khorramabad 10.
Tractor Sazi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Kheybar Khorramabad have let in 2 there.
Kheybar Khorramabad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Tractor Sazi have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Tractor Sazi
- vs Al-Wasl FC23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 51%
Kheybar Khorramabad
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.