Paks
vs
Zalaegerszegi TE
NB I prediction
Our model says: Paks 2–1 Zalaegerszegi TE
The model makes it 51% Paks, 23% draw, 26% Zalaegerszegi TE — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Paks 2.17, Zalaegerszegi TE 1.40.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Paks: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Paks's rating is built from 43 Hungarian NB I matches and Zalaegerszegi TE's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 455 matches.
Key facts
- Paks are 6th on 14 points from 10 games; Zalaegerszegi TE are 11th on 9 points from 10 games — NB I.
- Paks have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Gyori ETO FC.
- Zalaegerszegi TE have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Debreceni VSC.
- Last 6 meetings: Zalaegerszegi TE 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 August 2026, ended Zalaegerszegi TE 5–2 Paks.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paks at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Paks
NB I
- L1-2Gyori ETO FC17 October 2026
- W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Kisvarda FC19 September 2026
- L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza29 August 2026
Zalaegerszegi TE
NB I
- L0-3away to Debreceni VSC18 October 2026
- W5-1Nyiregyhaza11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ujpest20 September 2026
- W1-0Puskas Academy6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Budapest Honved29 August 2026
What these results say
- Paks scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zalaegerszegi TE conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paks | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE
- 3 August 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 5–2 PaksNB I
- 14 March 2026Paks 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 29 November 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–0 PaksNB I
- 17 August 2025Paks 2–2 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 22 April 2025Paks 2–1 Zalaegerszegi TEMagyar Kupa
- 29 March 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 PaksNB I
Leading scorers: Paks and Zalaegerszegi TE
Paks
GoalsAssists
- J. Szalai61
- M. Pető41
- Z. Haraszti22
Zalaegerszegi TE
GoalsAssists
- Arthur Henrique30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Paks carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.36 for Zalaegerszegi TE. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Paks and 1.40 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paks rate 0.80 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.61 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paks a 4% chance of the title and Zalaegerszegi TE 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paks the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Paks against 1.40 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Paks's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.63 for Zalaegerszegi TE.
How the model reaches 51% for Paks to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paks to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Paks's ratings take away 19 points and Zalaegerszegi TE's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Paks's ratings23%−19
- Zalaegerszegi TE's ratings51%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Paks at home · Zalaegerszegi TE away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PaksZalaegerszegi TE
Paks are 6th after 10 NB I matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Zalaegerszegi TE are 11th after 10 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Paks 10, Zalaegerszegi TE 10.
Paks score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Zalaegerszegi TE have let in 1 there.
Zalaegerszegi TE score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Paks have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Paks
- at Budapest Honved21 Nov · NB Iwin 38%
- vs Puskas Academy28 Nov · NB Iwin 38%
- at Ujpest5 Dec · NB Iwin 37%
Zalaegerszegi TE
- vs Vasas21 Nov · NB Iwin 32%
- at Ferencvarosi TC28 Nov · NB Iwin 18%
- vs Gyori ETO FC5 Dec · NB Iwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.