Regular Season - 29 · 22 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Sirius vs Djurgardens IF Allsvenskan prediction

Studenternas IP, Uppsala

Our model says: Sirius 1–2 Djurgardens IF

The model makes it 34% Sirius, 26% draw, 40% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Sirius 1.54, Djurgardens IF 1.73.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Djurgardens IF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Sirius's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and Djurgardens IF's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.

Key facts

  • Sirius are 2nd on 58 points from 28 games; Djurgardens IF are 3rd on 52 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
  • Sirius have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Kalmar FF.
  • Djurgardens IF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Halmstad.
  • Last 6 meetings: Djurgardens IF 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 June 2026, ended Sirius 1–1 Djurgardens IF.

More Allsvenskan predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sirius vs Djurgardens IF

65%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sirius win Draw Djurgardens IF win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 0–16%
  6. 0–26%
  7. 1–05%

Scores read Sirius first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Djurgardens IF at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sirius vs Djurgardens IF

Sirius

Allsvenskan

  • L0-1away to Kalmar FF8 November 2026
  • W2-0Halmstad3 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Hammarby FF29 October 2026
  • L1-2AIK Stockholm24 October 2026
  • D2-2IF Elfsborg18 October 2026

Djurgardens IF

Allsvenskan

  • L1-2away to Halmstad8 November 2026
  • W2-1Degerfors IF1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to IFK Goteborg28 October 2026
  • D2-2Orgryte IS24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to IF Brommapojkarna16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sirius failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sirius conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Djurgardens IF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Djurgardens IF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Djurgardens IF.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Sirius2818465835+2358
3Djurgardens IF2816485627+2952

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sirius

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 21% today

Win 40%
Draw 20%
Defeat 6%

Djurgardens IF

Chance to finish in the top three · 90% today

Win 100%
Draw 87%
Defeat 81%

From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sirius vs Djurgardens IF

  • 26 June 2026Sirius 1–1 Djurgardens IFFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 May 2026Djurgardens IF 2–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 29 September 2025Djurgardens IF 8–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 5 April 2025Sirius 0–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • 25 August 2024Sirius 0–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • 28 June 2024Sirius 2–2 Djurgardens IFFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Sirius and Djurgardens IF

Sirius

GoalsAssists

  • I. Bjerkebo157
  • R. Ure152

Djurgardens IF

GoalsAssists

  • K. Lien166
  • Bo Åsulv Hegland1116
  • C. Rosenquist81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sirius (second, with Djurgardens IF third), while our numbers lean to Djurgardens IF. Djurgardens IF rate 0.83 in attack and 1.20 in defence, Sirius 0.80 and 1.52 (lower is better in defence), so Djurgardens IF have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sirius a 21% chance of the title and Djurgardens IF 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sirius Djurgardens IF
0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.83
1.52 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.2
1.54 Model expected goals (this match) 1.73

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Djurgardens IF the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sirius against 1.73 for Djurgardens IF. Sirius's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.2 for Djurgardens IF.

Sirius carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.67 for Djurgardens IF. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Djurgardens IF to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Djurgardens IF to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Sirius's ratings add 4 points and Djurgardens IF's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage32%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level33%+1
  4. Sirius's ratings37%+4
  5. Djurgardens IF's ratings40%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

SiriusDjurgardens IF
28Matches28
18W 4D 6LRecord16W 4D 8L
58 2.1 per gameGoals scored56 2.0 per game
35 1.3 per gameGoals conceded27 1.0 per game
9 of 28Clean sheets13 of 28
4 of 28Failed to score3 of 28
6 of 7Penalties scored0 of 1
37 1.3 per gameYellow cards38 1.4 per game
1Red cards2
4-2-3-1 18×Usual shape4-2-3-1 26×

Sirius at home · Djurgardens IF away

14Played14
8W 3D 3LRecord9W 2D 3L
30–19Goals for – against22–10
4 of 14Clean sheets8 of 14

League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Allsvenskan matches this season: Sirius 28, Djurgardens IF 28.

Sirius scored 981371111
Djurgardens IF conceded 195263

Sirius score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Djurgardens IF have let in 5 there.

Djurgardens IF scored 146101088
Sirius conceded 295828

Djurgardens IF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (14 goals); Sirius have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Sirius

  • at IFK Goteborg29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 41%

Djurgardens IF

  • vs BK Hacken29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.