Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Red Bull Salzburg, 27% draw, 27% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Line-ups
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
- 18N. VeratschnigD
- 44K. BomaD
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 15B. MazurekM
- 23D. RedzicM
- 19K. KonatéM
- 20E. BaidooM
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 33A. CamaraM
- 1C. FrüchtlG
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 8S. KitanoF
- 13F. KrätzigD
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 11Y. VertessenF
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 23A. MalicD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 28J. HeilD
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 19S. SeidlM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 11A. KayomboF
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 6G. HaiderD
- 22A. HelacG
- 10O. KiteishviliM
- 15G. MamageishviliM
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 27L. BalboD
- 8F. RózgaM
Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
- 3 May 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 20 March 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 9 November 2025Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 20 September 2025Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 9 May 2025Sturm Graz 4–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković70
- K. Konaté40
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Red Bull Salzburg beat Sturm Graz 3–0. The model had made a win for Red Bull Salzburg its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nikolas Veratschnig 71' for Red Bull Salzburg, Kevin Boma 76' for Red Bull Salzburg, Aboubacar Sidiki Camara 83' for Red Bull Salzburg. Sent off: Jurgen Heil (Sturm Graz) 76'.
How the call on Red Bull Salzburg v Sturm Graz has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Red Bull Salzburg's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Red Bull Salzburg win46%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- Sturm Graz win27%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.