Red Bull Salzburg
vs
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 Sturm Graz
The model makes it 44% Red Bull Salzburg, 28% draw, 28% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 1.84, Sturm Graz 1.22.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Red Bull Salzburg wins, grey are draws, red are Sturm Graz wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
- W3-0away to WSG Wattens16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026
Sturm Graz
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
- 3 May 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 20 March 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 9 November 2025Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 20 September 2025Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 9 May 2025Sturm Graz 4–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 13 April 2025Red Bull Salzburg 1–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
- K. Konaté4 goals
- H. Tabaković3 goals
- Y. Vertessen2 goals1 assists
Sturm Graz
- N. Weiper2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Red Bull Salzburg carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.49 for Sturm Graz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.22 for Sturm Graz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.84 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sturm Graz rate 0.65 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Red Bull Salzburg a 25.8% chance of the title and Sturm Graz 2.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.22 for Sturm Graz. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.35 for Sturm Graz.