Lask Linz
vs
TSV Hartberg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Lask Linz 2–1 TSV Hartberg
The model makes it 55% Lask Linz, 23% draw, 22% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Lask Linz 2.18, TSV Hartberg 1.21.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Lask Linz: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Lask Linz's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches and TSV Hartberg's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.
Key facts
- Lask Linz are 3rd on 25 points from 12 games; TSV Hartberg are 4th on 20 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
- Lask Linz have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Ried.
- TSV Hartberg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to SCR Altach.
- Last 6 meetings: Lask Linz 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended TSV Hartberg 3–3 Lask Linz.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg
Has the model earned this number?
Lask Linz at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
- W4-2away to Ried7 November 2026
- W2-1WSG Wattens31 October 2026
- L1-3Red Bull Salzburg25 October 2026
- W4-0away to Austria Lustenau17 October 2026
- L0-2Rapid Vienna11 October 2026
TSV Hartberg
Bundesliga
- W3-0SCR Altach8 November 2026
- W4-0away to Grazer AK30 October 2026
- W1-0Wolfsberger AC24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna16 October 2026
- W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026
What these results say
- Lask Linz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lask Linz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
- TSV Hartberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for TSV Hartberg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lask Linz | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 | TSV Hartberg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
TSV Hartberg
Chance to finish in the top six · 96% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg
- 20 September 2026TSV Hartberg 3–3 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 26 April 2026TSV Hartberg 1–5 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 13 March 2026Lask Linz 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 6 December 2025TSV Hartberg 2–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 5 October 2025Lask Linz 3–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 26 May 2025Lask Linz 2–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- C. Lang80
- S. Adeniran62
- M. Usor33
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann61
- M. Hoffman40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lask Linz a 1.9% chance of the title and TSV Hartberg 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Lask Linz against 1.21 for TSV Hartberg. Lask Linz's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.41 for TSV Hartberg.
How the model reaches 55% for Lask Linz to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lask Linz to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Lask Linz's ratings add 6 points and TSV Hartberg's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Lask Linz's ratings50%+6
- TSV Hartberg's ratings55%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lask Linz at home · TSV Hartberg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Lask LinzTSV Hartberg
Lask Linz are 3rd after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); TSV Hartberg are 4th after 12 (between 4th and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Lask Linz 12, TSV Hartberg 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lask Linz
- at Bodo/Glimt24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 13%
- at Red Bull Salzburg29 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- at Rapid Vienna5 Dec · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Fenerbahçe9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 25%
- vs Austria Vienna13 Dec · Bundesligawin 63%
TSV Hartberg
- at Ried29 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Grazer AK5 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
- at Austria Lustenau11 Dec · Bundesligawin 50%
- vs Rapid Vienna23 Jan · Bundesligawin 26%
- at Wolfsberger AC30 Jan · Bundesligawin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.