TSV Hartberg
vs
SCR Altach
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: TSV Hartberg 1–0 SCR Altach
The model makes it 48% TSV Hartberg, 27% draw, 25% SCR Altach — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: TSV Hartberg 1.63, SCR Altach 1.02.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. TSV Hartberg's rating is built from 42 Austrian Bundesliga matches and SCR Altach's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 448 matches.
Key facts
- TSV Hartberg are 6th on 14 points from 10 games; SCR Altach are 9th on 9 points from 10 games — Bundesliga.
- TSV Hartberg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Wolfsberger AC.
- SCR Altach have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Austria Vienna.
- Last 6 meetings: TSV Hartberg 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended SCR Altach 1–2 TSV Hartberg.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach
Has the model earned this number?
It puts TSV Hartberg at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach
TSV Hartberg
Bundesliga
- W1-0Wolfsberger AC24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna16 October 2026
- W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026
- D3-3Lask Linz20 September 2026
- D2-2away to WSG Wattens13 September 2026
SCR Altach
Bundesliga
- W2-1Austria Vienna23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg18 October 2026
- W3-0Wolfsberger AC11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Austria Lustenau19 September 2026
- L1-2Grazer AK12 September 2026
What these results say
- TSV Hartberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for TSV Hartberg had three goals or more.
- SCR Altach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SCR Altach had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach
- 22 August 2026SCR Altach 1–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 14 February 2026TSV Hartberg 0–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 25 October 2025SCR Altach 2–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 4 May 2025TSV Hartberg 2–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 19 April 2025SCR Altach 1–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 23 February 2025SCR Altach 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann41
SCR Altach
GoalsAssists
- O. Diawara30
- Y. Massombo30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
TSV Hartberg carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.3 for SCR Altach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.02 for SCR Altach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
TSV Hartberg rate 0.65 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SCR Altach rate 0.50 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives TSV Hartberg the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for TSV Hartberg against 1.02 for SCR Altach. TSV Hartberg's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.53 for SCR Altach.
How the model reaches 48% for TSV Hartberg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for TSV Hartberg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, TSV Hartberg's ratings take away 22 points and SCR Altach's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- TSV Hartberg's ratings21%−22
- SCR Altach's ratings48%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
TSV Hartberg at home · SCR Altach away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
TSV HartbergSCR Altach
TSV Hartberg are 6th after 10 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 12th so far); SCR Altach are 9th after 10 (between 3rd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: TSV Hartberg 10, SCR Altach 10.
SCR Altach score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); TSV Hartberg have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
TSV Hartberg
- at Lask Linz21 Nov · Bundesligawin 17%
- at Ried29 Nov · Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Grazer AK5 Dec · Bundesligawin 51%
- at Austria Lustenau11 Dec · Bundesligawin 45%
SCR Altach
- vs Sturm Graz22 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
- at Grazer AK27 Nov · Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg4 Dec · Bundesligawin 19%
- at WSG Wattens12 Dec · Bundesligawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.