1899 Hoffenheim
vs
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 FC Schalke 04
The model makes it 44% 1899 Hoffenheim, 29% draw, 27% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.45, FC Schalke 04 1.01.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. 1899 Hoffenheim's rating is built from 40 Bundesliga matches and FC Schalke 04's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 677 matches.
Key facts
- 1899 Hoffenheim are 14th on 6 points from 6 games; FC Schalke 04 are 16th on 6 points from 7 games — Bundesliga.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- FC Schalke 04 are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to 1. FC Köln.
- Last 6 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 April 2023, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 2–0 FC Schalke 04.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga
- W2-1away to Borussia Mönchengladbach18 October 2026
- L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026
- L1-3away to SC Paderborn 0720 September 2026
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga
- D0-0away to 1. FC Köln24 October 2026
- L0-1FSV Mainz 0517 October 2026
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
- D0-0SV Elversberg20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Union Berlin11 September 2026
What these results say
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.
- FC Schalke 04 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
- 9 April 20231899 Hoffenheim 2–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 18 October 20221899 Hoffenheim 5–1 FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal
- 14 October 2022FC Schalke 04 0–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 8 May 20211899 Hoffenheim 4–2 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 9 January 2021FC Schalke 04 4–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 7 March 2020FC Schalke 04 1–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1899 Hoffenheim carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.8 for FC Schalke 04. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.01 for FC Schalke 04. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.07 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Schalke 04 rate 0.55 and 0.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.01 for FC Schalke 04. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/0.74 for FC Schalke 04.
How the model reaches 44% for 1899 Hoffenheim to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for 1899 Hoffenheim to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, 1899 Hoffenheim's ratings take away 2 points and FC Schalke 04's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage42%+4
- 1899 Hoffenheim's ratings40%−2
- FC Schalke 04's ratings44%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1899 Hoffenheim at home · FC Schalke 04 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
1899 HoffenheimFC Schalke 04
1899 Hoffenheim are 14th after 6 Bundesliga matches (between 10th and 16th so far); FC Schalke 04 are 16th after 7 (between 7th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: 1899 Hoffenheim 6, FC Schalke 04 7.
1899 Hoffenheim score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); FC Schalke 04 have let in 0 there.
FC Schalke 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); 1899 Hoffenheim have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
1899 Hoffenheim
- at Eintracht Frankfurt21 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Sturm Graz26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 50%
FC Schalke 04
- vs VfB Stuttgart21 Nov · Bundesligawin 29%
- at SC Paderborn 0728 Nov · Bundesligawin 29%
- vs Borussia Dortmund5 Dec · Bundesligawin 18%
- at Hamburger SV12 Dec · Bundesligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.