Grazer AK
vs
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Grazer AK 0–2 Rapid Vienna
The model makes it 14% Grazer AK, 21% draw, 65% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 7.14, 4.76 and 1.54.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Grazer AK 0.81, Rapid Vienna 2.34.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Rapid Vienna are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Grazer AK's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Rapid Vienna's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.
Key facts
- Grazer AK are 10th on 10 points from 12 games; Rapid Vienna are top on 33 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
- Grazer AK have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Austria Lustenau.
- Rapid Vienna are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 6-0 win at home to Wolfsberger AC.
- Last 5 meetings: Rapid Vienna 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Rapid Vienna 8–0 Grazer AK.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna
Has the model earned this number?
Rapid Vienna at 65%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna
Grazer AK
Bundesliga
- L1-2away to Austria Lustenau7 November 2026
- L0-4TSV Hartberg30 October 2026
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens24 October 2026
- L1-6away to Sturm Graz18 October 2026
- D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga
- W6-0Wolfsberger AC6 November 2026
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna1 November 2026
- W5-1Austria Lustenau24 October 2026
- W3-1TSV Hartberg16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Lask Linz11 October 2026
What these results say
- Grazer AK did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Grazer AK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapid Vienna won every one of these 5 matches.
- Rapid Vienna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grazer AK | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 10 |
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 9 | +30 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Grazer AK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 57% today
Rapid Vienna
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 62% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna
- 16 August 2026Rapid Vienna 8–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 23 November 2025Rapid Vienna 1–2 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 21 September 2025Grazer AK 1–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 16 March 2025Rapid Vienna 3–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 27 October 2024Grazer AK 1–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
Leading scorers: Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner40
Rapid Vienna
GoalsAssists
- E. Kara71
- P. Dahl71
- T. Adamsen55
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grazer AK a 0% chance of the title and Rapid Vienna 61.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid Vienna the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Grazer AK against 2.34 for Rapid Vienna. Grazer AK's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.02 for Rapid Vienna.
How the model reaches 65% for Rapid Vienna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rapid Vienna to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Grazer AK's ratings add 17 points and Rapid Vienna's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Grazer AK's ratings47%+17
- Rapid Vienna's ratings65%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Grazer AK at home · Rapid Vienna away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Grazer AKRapid Vienna
Grazer AK are 10th after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Rapid Vienna are 1st after 12 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Grazer AK 12, Rapid Vienna 12.
Grazer AK score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Rapid Vienna have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Grazer AK
- vs SCR Altach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 37%
- at TSV Hartberg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 17%
- vs Sturm Graz13 Dec · Bundesligawin 20%
- at Austria Vienna23 Jan · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs WSG Wattens30 Jan · Bundesligawin 36%
Rapid Vienna
- at Austria Lustenau28 Nov · Bundesligawin 69%
- vs Lask Linz5 Dec · Bundesligawin 53%
- vs Ried12 Dec · Bundesligawin 68%
- at TSV Hartberg23 Jan · Bundesligawin 48%
- vs Austria Vienna30 Jan · Bundesligawin 70%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.