Plzen
vs
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Plzen 1–2 Sparta Praha
The model makes it 37% Plzen, 25% draw, 38% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Plzen 1.67, Sparta Praha 1.67.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,013 settled matches.
A tight game: Plzen and Sparta Praha are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Plzen's rating is built from 46 Czech Liga matches and Sparta Praha's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 650 matches.
Key facts
- Plzen are 9th on 16 points from 11 games; Sparta Praha are 6th on 19 points from 11 games — Czech Liga.
- Plzen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to FK Jablonec.
- Sparta Praha are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Baník Ostrava.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Sparta Praha 0–0 Plzen.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Plzen vs Sparta Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Plzen vs Sparta Praha
Plzen
Czech Liga
- W3-2away to FK Jablonec18 October 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha20 September 2026
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga
- D0-0away to Baník Ostrava18 October 2026
- W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sigma Olomouc20 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
What these results say
- Plzen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Plzen had three goals or more.
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Praha kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Plzen | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 16 |
| 6 | Sparta Praha | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Sparta Praha
Plzen and Sparta Praha have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Sparta Praha on 12 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Sparta Praha | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 May 2026
Czech LigaSparta Praha 0–0 Plzen - 22 Feb 2026
Czech LigaPlzen 0–0 Sparta Praha - 20 Sep 2025
Czech LigaSparta Praha 2–1 Plzen - 27 Apr 2025
Czech LigaPlzen 2–0 Sparta Praha - 23 Apr 2025
CupSparta Praha 1–0 Plzen - 30 Mar 2025
Czech LigaSparta Praha 2–4 Plzen
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Plzen | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Sparta Praha | 1.13 | 0.92 |
Leading scorers: Plzen and Sparta Praha
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić33
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Plzen carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.95 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Plzen and 1.67 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Plzen rate 1.20 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 1.13 and 0.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Plzen a 1.8% chance of the title and Sparta Praha 7.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Plzen against 1.67 for Sparta Praha. Plzen's attack/defence rating is 1.2/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.92 for Sparta Praha.
How the model reaches 38% for Sparta Praha to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sparta Praha to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Plzen's ratings change nothing and Sparta Praha's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Plzen's ratings32%±0
- Sparta Praha's ratings38%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Plzen at home · Sparta Praha away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PlzenSparta Praha
Plzen are 9th after 11 Czech Liga matches (between 8th and 16th so far); Sparta Praha are 6th after 11 (between 2nd and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Plzen 11, Sparta Praha 11.
Plzen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Sparta Praha have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Plzen
- at Bohemians 190521 Nov · Czech Ligawin 45%
- vs Benfica26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
Sparta Praha
- vs Slovan Liberec22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 51%
- vs AZ Alkmaar26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.