FK Jablonec
vs
Slavia Praha
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Jablonec 0–2 Slavia Praha
The model makes it 17% FK Jablonec, 24% draw, 59% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 5.88, 4.17 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 0.82, Slavia Praha 1.99.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Slavia Praha are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- FK Jablonec are 7th on 17 points from 10 games; Slavia Praha are top on 27 points from 11 games — Czech Liga.
- FK Jablonec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Zbrojovka Brno.
- Slavia Praha are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Hradec Králové.
- Last 6 meetings: Slavia Praha 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended Slavia Praha 5–1 FK Jablonec.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Praha at 59% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 927 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha
FK Jablonec
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
Slavia Praha
- D0-0Hradec Králové17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin9 October 2026
- W2-1Plzen20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Teplice13 September 2026
- W4-0Zbrojovka Brno5 September 2026
What these results say
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FK Jablonec
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
Slavia Praha
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 89% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha
FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha have met 6 times in the records we hold, Slavia Praha has won 3 of them to FK Jablonec's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Slavia Praha won the last one 5–1 on 13 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 |
| Slavia Praha | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 27 goals, an average of 4.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 13 May 2026
Czech LigaSlavia Praha 5–1 FK Jablonec - 3 Mar 2026
CupFK Jablonec 2–2 Slavia Praha - 13 Dec 2025
Czech LigaSlavia Praha 4–3 FK Jablonec - 16 Aug 2025
Czech LigaFK Jablonec 1–1 Slavia Praha - 18 May 2025
Czech LigaFK Jablonec 3–2 Slavia Praha - 16 Mar 2025
Czech LigaSlavia Praha 3–0 FK Jablonec
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 0.75 | 1.20 |
| Slavia Praha | 1.31 | 0.72 |
Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Slavia Praha
GoalsAssists
- W. Nowak51
- E. Ayaosi41
- M. Chytil40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.62 against 7.15 for Slavia Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.99 for Slavia Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.75 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Praha rate 1.31 and 0.72.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Jablonec a 0.1% chance of the title and Slavia Praha 89.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.99 for Slavia Praha. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.31/0.72 for Slavia Praha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FK Jablonec at home · Slavia Praha away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: FK Jablonec 10, Slavia Praha 11.
FK Jablonec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Slavia Praha have let in 2 there.
Slavia Praha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); FK Jablonec have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FK Jablonec
- at Riga5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 53%
- vs Mlada Boleslav8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
Slavia Praha
- vs Arsenal4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
- vs Artis8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 83%
- at Sigma Olomouc21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.