Teplice
vs
Pardubice
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Teplice 1–0 Pardubice
The model makes it 44% Teplice, 28% draw, 28% Pardubice — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Teplice 1.53, Pardubice 1.11.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Teplice's rating is built from 47 Czech Liga matches and Pardubice's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 650 matches.
Key facts
- Teplice are 7th on 18 points from 12 games; Pardubice are 12th on 11 points from 11 games — Czech Liga.
- Teplice are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Artis.
- Pardubice have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Zlin.
- Last 6 meetings: Teplice 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Pardubice 1–1 Teplice.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Teplice vs Pardubice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Teplice at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Teplice vs Pardubice
Teplice
Czech Liga
- D0-0Artis24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Mlada Boleslav17 October 2026
- D1-1Sigma Olomouc11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Hradec Králové20 September 2026
- L0-2Slavia Praha13 September 2026
Pardubice
Czech Liga
- W3-0Zlin17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026
- W2-1Bohemians 190519 September 2026
- W2-1away to Baník Ostrava13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Teplice had two goals or fewer.
- Teplice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Teplice | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 18 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Teplice vs Pardubice
- 28 February 2026Pardubice 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 28 September 2025Teplice 0–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 25 May 2025Teplice 3–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 1 March 2025Teplice 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 28 September 2024Pardubice 0–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 17 February 2024Pardubice 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Teplice and Pardubice
Teplice
GoalsAssists
- John Auta40
- L. Mareček31
- M. Pulkrab31
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Teplice carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.59 for Pardubice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Teplice and 1.11 for Pardubice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Teplice rate 0.80 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pardubice rate 0.75 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Teplice a 0.1% chance of the title and Pardubice 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Teplice the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Teplice against 1.11 for Pardubice. Teplice's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.27 for Pardubice.
How the model reaches 44% for Teplice to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Teplice to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Teplice's ratings take away 10 points and Pardubice's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Teplice's ratings31%−10
- Pardubice's ratings44%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Teplice at home · Pardubice away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Teplice 12, Pardubice 11.
Teplice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Pardubice have let in 3 there.
Pardubice score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Teplice have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Teplice
- at Baník Ostrava21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 40%
- vs Slovan Liberec28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 36%
- at Plzen6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 22%
- vs Sparta Praha14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 26%
Pardubice
- vs Zbrojovka Brno22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 39%
- at FK Jablonec29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 30%
- vs Slavia Praha4 Dec · Czech Ligawin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.