St. Truiden
vs
Zulte Waregem
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: St. Truiden 2–1 Zulte Waregem
The model makes it 49% St. Truiden, 26% draw, 25% Zulte Waregem — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St. Truiden 1.82, Zulte Waregem 1.16.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. St. Truiden's rating is built from 48 Jupiler Pro League matches and Zulte Waregem's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- St. Truiden are 13th on 8 points from 8 games; Zulte Waregem are 10th on 11 points from 9 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- St. Truiden are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to KV Mechelen.
- Zulte Waregem are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to RAAL La Louvière.
- Last 6 meetings: St. Truiden 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended St. Truiden 3–2 Zulte Waregem.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 49% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League
- L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
Zulte Waregem
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-3away to RAAL La Louvière24 October 2026
- L0-2Gent10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Anderlecht19 September 2026
- L0-1Charleroi13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kortrijk6 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Truiden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zulte Waregem failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zulte Waregem failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zulte Waregem conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Zulte Waregem | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
- 15 February 2026St. Truiden 3–2 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 23 August 2025Zulte Waregem 0–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 11 January 2023Zulte Waregem 2–0 St. TruidenCup
- 27 December 2022St. Truiden 2–0 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 17 September 2022Zulte Waregem 0–3 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 2 April 2022Zulte Waregem 0–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- R. Merlen34
Zulte Waregem
GoalsAssists
- Á. Zalán30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St. Truiden carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.69 for Zulte Waregem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for St. Truiden and 1.16 for Zulte Waregem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Truiden rate 1.01 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zulte Waregem rate 0.81 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zulte Waregem, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for St. Truiden against 1.16 for Zulte Waregem. St. Truiden's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.11 for Zulte Waregem.
How the model reaches 49% for St. Truiden to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for St. Truiden to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, St. Truiden's ratings take away 2 points and Zulte Waregem's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- St. Truiden's ratings41%−2
- Zulte Waregem's ratings49%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St. Truiden at home · Zulte Waregem away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
St. TruidenZulte Waregem
St. Truiden are 13th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Zulte Waregem are 10th after 9 (between 1st and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: St. Truiden 8, Zulte Waregem 9.
Zulte Waregem score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); St. Truiden have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
St. Truiden
- at Charleroi21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
- at HNK Hajduk Split26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 35%
Zulte Waregem
- vs Antwerp21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Lommel United28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Standard Liege12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Cercle Brugge19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.