FK Jablonec
vs
Mlada Boleslav
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Jablonec 1–0 Mlada Boleslav
The model makes it 36% FK Jablonec, 28% draw, 36% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 1.34, Mlada Boleslav 1.36.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. FK Jablonec's rating is built from 46 Czech Liga matches and Mlada Boleslav's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 650 matches.
Key facts
- FK Jablonec are 8th on 17 points from 11 games; Mlada Boleslav are 2nd on 21 points from 12 games — Czech Liga.
- FK Jablonec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Plzen.
- Mlada Boleslav have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Slavia Praha.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Jablonec 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended FK Jablonec 5–0 Mlada Boleslav.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Jablonec at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav
FK Jablonec
Czech Liga
- L2-3Plzen18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
Mlada Boleslav
Czech Liga
- D1-1away to Slavia Praha24 October 2026
- W1-0Teplice17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bohemians 190514 October 2026
- L0-3away to Plzen10 October 2026
- W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
What these results say
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mlada Boleslav had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 17 |
| 2 | Mlada Boleslav | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav
- 27 June 2026FK Jablonec 5–0 Mlada BoleslavFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2026FK Jablonec 1–0 Mlada BoleslavCup
- 28 February 2026Mlada Boleslav 3–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 28 September 2025FK Jablonec 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 19 April 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 20 July 2024FK Jablonec 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert61
- J. Klíma41
- S. John33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.7 for Mlada Boleslav. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.36 for Mlada Boleslav. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.78 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mlada Boleslav rate 0.85 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mlada Boleslav, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Jablonec a 0.1% chance of the title and Mlada Boleslav 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Jablonec the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.36 for Mlada Boleslav. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.14 for Mlada Boleslav.
How the model reaches 36% for FK Jablonec to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FK Jablonec to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, FK Jablonec's ratings take away 12 points and Mlada Boleslav's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- FK Jablonec's ratings29%−12
- Mlada Boleslav's ratings36%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FK Jablonec at home · Mlada Boleslav away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: FK Jablonec 11, Mlada Boleslav 12.
FK Jablonec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Mlada Boleslav have let in 1 there.
Mlada Boleslav score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); FK Jablonec have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FK Jablonec
- at Artis21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 42%
- vs FC Lugano26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 30%
Mlada Boleslav
- vs Zlin21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 59%
- vs Sigma Olomouc28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 41%
- at Sparta Praha5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 20%
- vs Pardubice12 Dec · Czech Ligawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.