Pardubice
vs
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Pardubice 0–1 Slovan Liberec
The model makes it 32% Pardubice, 32% draw, 36% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Pardubice 1.01, Slovan Liberec 1.09.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Slovan Liberec: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pardubice are 12th on 11 points from 11 games; Slovan Liberec are 3rd on 20 points from 11 games — Czech Liga.
- Pardubice have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Zlin.
- Slovan Liberec are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Sigma Olomouc.
- Last 6 meetings: Slovan Liberec 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 March 2026, ended Pardubice 1–2 Slovan Liberec.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovan Liberec at 36% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec
Pardubice
- W3-0Zlin17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026
- W2-1Bohemians 190519 September 2026
- W2-1away to Baník Ostrava13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
Slovan Liberec
- L0-1away to Sigma Olomouc17 October 2026
- L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav12 September 2026
- W2-1away to FK Jablonec6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pardubice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pardubice
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
Slovan Liberec
Chance to finish in the top four · 38% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec
- 27 March 2026Pardubice 1–2 Slovan LiberecFriendlies Clubs
- 22 November 2025Pardubice 0–4 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 27 July 2025Slovan Liberec 2–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 14 December 2024Pardubice 1–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 18 August 2024Slovan Liberec 3–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 16 December 2023Pardubice 2–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Pardubice and Slovan Liberec
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Slovan Liberec
GoalsAssists
- P. Dulay31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pardubice carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.75 for Slovan Liberec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Pardubice and 1.09 for Slovan Liberec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pardubice rate 0.74 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovan Liberec rate 0.69 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pardubice a 0% chance of the title and Slovan Liberec 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovan Liberec the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pardubice against 1.09 for Slovan Liberec. Pardubice's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/0.9 for Slovan Liberec.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pardubice at home · Slovan Liberec away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Pardubice 11, Slovan Liberec 11.
Pardubice score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Slovan Liberec have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Pardubice
- at Teplice8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 28%
- vs Zbrojovka Brno22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 40%
- at FK Jablonec29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 30%
- vs Slavia Praha4 Dec · Czech Ligawin 16%
Slovan Liberec
- vs Bohemians 19057 Nov · Czech Ligawin 41%
- at Sparta Praha22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 21%
- at Teplice28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 32%
- vs Zbrojovka Brno5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.