Baltika
vs
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Baltika 1–0 Dinamo Makhachkala
The model makes it 52% Baltika, 27% draw, 21% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Baltika 1.66, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.88.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Baltika: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Baltika's rating is built from 42 Russian Premier League matches and Dinamo Makhachkala's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 581 matches.
Key facts
- Baltika are 8th on 14 points from 12 games; Dinamo Makhachkala are 9th on 13 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- Baltika have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Krasnodar.
- Dinamo Makhachkala are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Akron.
- Last 6 meetings: Baltika 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 20 August 2026, ended Baltika 1–1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baltika at 52% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Baltika
Premier League
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar24 October 2026
- D0-0FC Rostov18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026
- L2-3Zenit16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League
- D1-1Akron17 October 2026
- L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026
- L1-3CSKA Moscow17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
What these results say
- Baltika did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala
- 20 August 2026Baltika 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 5 April 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 2–2 BaltikaPremier League
- 5 October 2025Baltika 2–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 15 February 2024Baltika 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
- 2 April 2023Dinamo Makhachkala 0–0 BaltikaFirst League
- 20 February 2023Dinamo Makhachkala 2–2 BaltikaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Baltika and Dinamo Makhachkala
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil41
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Baltika carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.12 for Dinamo Makhachkala. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Baltika and 0.88 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baltika rate 0.51 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.49 and 2.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Baltika a 0.1% chance of the title and Dinamo Makhachkala 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baltika the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Baltika against 0.88 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Baltika's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.11 for Dinamo Makhachkala.
How the model reaches 52% for Baltika to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Baltika to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Baltika's ratings take away 24 points and Dinamo Makhachkala's ratings add 34 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Baltika's ratings18%−24
- Dinamo Makhachkala's ratings52%+34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Baltika at home · Dinamo Makhachkala away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Baltika 12, Dinamo Makhachkala 11.
Baltika score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Dinamo Makhachkala have let in 8 there.
Dinamo Makhachkala score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Baltika have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Baltika
- at FC Orenburg21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Akhmat28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Zenit5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Rodina Moskva27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 59%
Dinamo Makhachkala
- vs Spartak Moscow22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- at Lokomotiv29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Krylia Sovetov4 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.