Fulham
vs
Newcastle
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Fulham 2–1 Newcastle
The model makes it 41% Fulham, 27% draw, 32% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fulham 1.52, Newcastle 1.28.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,109 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Fulham's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Newcastle's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 831 matches.
Key facts
- Fulham are 19th on 5 points from 7 games; Newcastle are 11th on 8 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Fulham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Hull City.
- Newcastle have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Aston Villa.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Fulham 2–0 Newcastle.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fulham vs Newcastle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fulham at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fulham vs Newcastle
Fulham
Premier League
- W1-0Hull City17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
- D1-1Manchester United20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Liverpool12 September 2026
- L2-3Crystal Palace5 September 2026
Newcastle
Premier League
- L0-1Aston Villa17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
- W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
What these results say
- Fulham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fulham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fulham vs Newcastle
Fulham and Newcastle have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Fulham won the last one 2–0 on 24 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Newcastle | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 May 2026
Premier LeagueFulham 2–0 Newcastle - 17 Dec 2025
League CupNewcastle 2–1 Fulham - 25 Oct 2025
Premier LeagueNewcastle 2–1 Fulham - 1 Feb 2025
Premier LeagueNewcastle 1–2 Fulham - 21 Sep 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 3–1 Newcastle - 6 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 0–1 Newcastle
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fulham carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.8 for Newcastle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Fulham and 1.28 for Newcastle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fulham rate 0.83 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newcastle rate 1.03 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Newcastle, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fulham the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Fulham against 1.28 for Newcastle. Fulham's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.14 for Newcastle.
How the model reaches 41% for Fulham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Fulham to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Fulham's ratings take away 4 points and Newcastle's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Fulham's ratings37%−4
- Newcastle's ratings41%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fulham at home · Newcastle away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FulhamNewcastle
Fulham are 19th after 7 Premier League matches (between 12th and 19th so far); Newcastle are 11th after 7 (between 3rd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Fulham 7, Newcastle 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fulham
- at Manchester City21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 13%
- vs Bournemouth29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Tottenham2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
Newcastle
- vs Arsenal21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- at Brighton29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- vs Manchester United2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.