Coventry
vs
Fulham
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Coventry 1–0 Fulham
The model makes it 38% Coventry, 29% draw, 33% Fulham — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Coventry 1.30, Fulham 1.19.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Coventry are 14th on 6 points from 6 games; Fulham are bottom on 2 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Coventry have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Newcastle.
- Fulham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Ipswich.
- Last 2 meetings: Coventry 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 April 2022, ended Fulham 1–3 Coventry.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Coventry vs Fulham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coventry at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Coventry vs Fulham
Coventry
- W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest19 September 2026
- L0-5Brighton13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Manchester City5 September 2026
- L0-1Hull City29 August 2026
Fulham
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
- D1-1Manchester United20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Liverpool12 September 2026
- L2-3Crystal Palace5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sunderland30 August 2026
What these results say
- Coventry conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fulham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fulham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Coventry
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
Fulham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 49% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Coventry vs Fulham
- 10 April 2022Fulham 1–3 CoventryChampionship
- 2 October 2021Coventry 4–1 FulhamChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Coventry carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.8 for Fulham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Coventry and 1.19 for Fulham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Coventry rate 0.87 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fulham rate 0.83 and 0.93.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coventry the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Coventry against 1.19 for Fulham. Coventry's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.93 for Fulham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Coventry at home · Fulham away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CoventryFulham
Coventry are 14th after 6 Premier League matches (between 14th and 20th so far); Fulham are 19th after 6 (between 12th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Coventry 6, Fulham 6.
Fulham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Coventry have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Coventry
- vs Sunderland31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Everton6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Crystal Palace21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Leeds28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
Fulham
- vs Crystal Palace28 Oct · League Cupwin 43%
- at Aston Villa31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Newcastle7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Manchester City21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 12%
- vs Bournemouth29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.