Chelsea
vs
Tottenham
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham
The model makes it 53% Chelsea, 24% draw, 23% Tottenham — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chelsea 2.06, Tottenham 1.17.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Chelsea: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Chelsea are 6th on 10 points from 6 games; Tottenham are 19th on 3 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Chelsea have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Bournemouth.
- Tottenham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Manchester United.
- Last 6 meetings: Chelsea 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Chelsea 1–2 Tottenham.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chelsea vs Tottenham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chelsea at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chelsea vs Tottenham
Chelsea
- W5-1Bournemouth10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Brentford18 September 2026
- D2-2Hull City12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
Tottenham
- D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026
- L2-3Aston Villa19 September 2026
- D0-0Everton12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Nottingham Forest5 September 2026
- L0-2Newcastle29 August 2026
What these results say
- Chelsea conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Chelsea had three goals or more.
- Chelsea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tottenham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tottenham had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chelsea
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
Tottenham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 56% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Tottenham
Chelsea and Tottenham have met 6 times in the records we hold, Chelsea has won 5 of them to Tottenham's 1.
The record
Tottenham won the last one 2–1 on 1 Aug 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 |
| Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Aug 2026
Friendlies ClubsChelsea 1–2 Tottenham - 19 May 2026
Premier LeagueChelsea 2–1 Tottenham - 1 Nov 2025
Premier LeagueTottenham 0–1 Chelsea - 3 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueChelsea 1–0 Tottenham - 8 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueTottenham 3–4 Chelsea - 2 May 2024
Premier LeagueChelsea 2–0 Tottenham
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Tottenham
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers41
- C. Palmer23
Tottenham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Chelsea carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.73 for Tottenham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Chelsea and 1.17 for Tottenham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chelsea rate 1.31 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tottenham rate 0.76 and 0.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chelsea a 0.2% chance of the title and Tottenham 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chelsea the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Chelsea against 1.17 for Tottenham. Chelsea's attack/defence rating is 1.31/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/0.98 for Tottenham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chelsea at home · Tottenham away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ChelseaTottenham
Chelsea are 5th after 6 Premier League matches (between 3rd and 7th so far); Tottenham are 18th after 6 (between 17th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Chelsea 6, Tottenham 6.
Chelsea score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Tottenham have let in 1 there.
Tottenham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Chelsea have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chelsea
- at Liverpool28 Oct · League Cupwin 24%
- vs Manchester United31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Sunderland8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- vs Leeds21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Nottingham Forest27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Tottenham
- vs Crystal Palace31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Leeds7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Ipswich21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Sunderland29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.