Arsenal
vs
Everton
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Arsenal 2–0 Everton
The model makes it 60% Arsenal, 24% draw, 16% Everton — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.95, Everton 0.75.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Arsenal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Arsenal are 2nd on 15 points from 6 games; Everton are 5th on 10 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Leeds.
- Everton are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Hull City.
- Last 6 meetings: Arsenal 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Arsenal 2–0 Everton.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arsenal vs Everton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arsenal vs Everton
Arsenal
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
Everton
- D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026
- W1-0Ipswich19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tottenham12 September 2026
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Everton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arsenal
Chance to win the league · 27% today
Everton
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Everton
Arsenal and Everton have met 6 times in the records we hold, Arsenal has won 4 of them to Everton's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Arsenal won the last one 2–0 on 14 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
| Everton | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 9 goals, an average of 1.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 14 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueArsenal 2–0 Everton - 20 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueEverton 0–1 Arsenal - 5 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueEverton 1–1 Arsenal - 14 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueArsenal 0–0 Everton - 19 May 2024
Premier LeagueArsenal 2–1 Everton - 17 Sep 2023
Premier LeagueEverton 0–1 Arsenal
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Everton
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- B. Saka30
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arsenal carry a model rating of 7.32 against 6.9 for Everton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Arsenal and 0.75 for Everton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arsenal rate 1.40 in attack and 0.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Everton rate 0.96 and 0.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arsenal a 27.3% chance of the title and Everton 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Arsenal against 0.75 for Everton. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.4/0.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/0.87 for Everton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arsenal at home · Everton away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ArsenalEverton
Arsenal are 2nd after 6 Premier League matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Everton are 5th after 6 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Arsenal 6, Everton 6.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Everton have let in 2 there.
Everton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Arsenal have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Arsenal
- at Fleetwood Town27 Oct · League Cupwin 85%
- at Liverpool1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Slavia Praha4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Hull City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 59%
Everton
- at Newcastle2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Coventry6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Brentford23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Liverpool29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.