Regular Season - 17 · 24 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Charlton vs Lincoln Championship prediction

The Valley, London

Our model says: Charlton 1–0 Lincoln

The model makes it 37% Charlton, 31% draw, 32% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Charlton 1.17, Lincoln 1.06.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Charlton's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Lincoln's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

Charlton are 19th on 17 points from 15 games; Lincoln are 21st on 15 points from 15 games — Championship.
Charlton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Sheffield Utd.
Lincoln are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to QPR.
Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2025, ended Charlton 2–2 Lincoln.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Charlton vs Lincoln

46%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Charlton win Draw Lincoln win

1–114%
1–012%
0–011%
0–111%
2–18%
2–07%
1–27%

Scores read Charlton first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Charlton at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Charlton vs Lincoln

Charlton

Championship

W2-1Sheffield Utd7 November 2026
L0-1Bolton3 November 2026
L0-3away to Middlesbrough31 October 2026
L1-3Norwich24 October 2026
L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026

Lincoln

Championship

L1-2away to QPR7 November 2026
L0-1away to Watford3 November 2026
L1-3Birmingham31 October 2026
W4-1Burnley24 October 2026
D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026

What these results say

Charlton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Charlton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Lincoln conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Lincoln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	-10	17
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	15	26	-11	15

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Charlton

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today

Win 23%

Draw 31%

Defeat 36%

Lincoln

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today

Win 23%

Draw 30%

Defeat 34%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Charlton vs Lincoln

Charlton and Lincoln have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 4 drawn.

The record

They drew 2–2 at Charlton on 5 Apr 2025.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Charlton	1	4	1	6	7
Lincoln	1	4	1	7	6

Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

5 Apr 2025
League OneCharlton 2–2 Lincoln
7 Dec 2024
League OneLincoln 0–0 Charlton
13 Feb 2024
League OneCharlton 1–1 Lincoln
24 Oct 2023
League OneLincoln 3–1 Charlton
7 Jan 2023
League OneCharlton 2–1 Lincoln
8 Oct 2022
League OneLincoln 0–0 Charlton

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Lincoln's attack rates 28% above Charlton's, and Charlton concede 10% fewer than Lincoln. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Charlton	0.50	1.38
Lincoln	0.64	1.54

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Charlton Lincoln

0.5 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64

1.38 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.54

1.17 Model expected goals (this match) 1.06

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Charlton the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Charlton against 1.06 for Lincoln. Charlton's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.54 for Lincoln.

How the model reaches 37% for Charlton to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Charlton to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Charlton's ratings take away 2 points and Lincoln's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 37%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Both sides at this match's level40%−2
Charlton's ratings38%−2
Lincoln's ratings37%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

CharltonModelLincoln

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

66%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

39%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

19%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

46%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

CharltonLincoln

15Matches15

4W 5D 6LRecord4W 3D 8L

13 0.9 per gameGoals scored15 1.0 per game

23 1.5 per gameGoals conceded26 1.7 per game

3 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15

6 of 15Failed to score4 of 15

–Penalties scored2 of 2

31 2.1 per gameYellow cards36 2.4 per game

1Red cards3

4-2-3-1 11×Usual shape3-4-2-1 6×

Charlton at home · Lincoln away

8Played8

3W 3D 2LRecord3W 1D 4L

7–7Goals for – against7–10

3 of 8Clean sheets3 of 8

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

CharltonLincoln

Charlton are 19th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 21st so far); Lincoln are 21st after 15 (between 8th and 23rd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Charlton 15, Lincoln 15.

Charlton scored 410324

Lincoln conceded 224756

Lincoln scored 214332

Charlton conceded 374422

Lincoln score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Charlton have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Charlton

at Blackburn28 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
vs Birmingham5 Dec · Championshipwin 23%
at Wrexham8 Dec · Championshipwin 21%
vs Swansea12 Dec · Championshipwin 28%

Lincoln

vs Wolves28 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
at Cardiff5 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
vs Stoke City9 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
vs Norwich13 Dec · Championshipwin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.