Burnley
vs
Blackburn
Championship prediction
Our model says: Burnley 2–1 Blackburn
The model makes it 39% Burnley, 27% draw, 34% Blackburn — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Burnley 1.56, Blackburn 1.41.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Burnley's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Blackburn's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Burnley are 22nd on 10 points from 15 games; Blackburn are 13th on 21 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Burnley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 4-5 defeat away to Cardiff.
- Blackburn have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to West Ham.
- Last 6 meetings: Burnley 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 January 2025, ended Blackburn 0–1 Burnley.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burnley vs Blackburn
Has the model earned this number?
Burnley at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Burnley vs Blackburn
Burnley
Championship
- L4-5away to Cardiff7 November 2026
- D1-1away to QPR3 November 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth31 October 2026
- L1-4away to Lincoln24 October 2026
- L1-2Wolves16 October 2026
Blackburn
Championship
- W2-1West Ham7 November 2026
- L1-2Stoke City3 November 2026
- L0-4away to Swansea31 October 2026
- W2-0Wrexham24 October 2026
- L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026
What these results say
- Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Burnley
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Burnley
Blackburn and Burnley have met 6 times in the records we hold, Burnley has won 5 of them to Blackburn's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Burnley won the last one 1–0 on 4 Jan 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| Burnley | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 4 Jan 2025
ChampionshipBlackburn 0–1 Burnley - 31 Aug 2024
ChampionshipBurnley 1–1 Blackburn - 25 Apr 2023
ChampionshipBlackburn 0–1 Burnley - 13 Nov 2022
ChampionshipBurnley 3–0 Blackburn - 23 Aug 2017
League CupBlackburn 0–2 Burnley - 5 Mar 2016
ChampionshipBurnley 1–0 Blackburn
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Burnley's attack rates 17% above Blackburn's, and Blackburn concede 25% fewer than Burnley. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Burnley and Blackburn
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Blackburn (13th, with Burnley 22nd), while our numbers lean to Burnley. Burnley rate 0.77 in attack and 1.78 in defence, Blackburn 0.66 and 1.33 (lower is better in defence), so Burnley have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 11-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burnley a 0% chance of the title and Blackburn 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Burnley against 1.41 for Blackburn. Burnley's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.33 for Blackburn.
How the model reaches 39% for Burnley to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Burnley to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Burnley's ratings take away 1 point and Blackburn's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level43%+1
- Burnley's ratings42%−1
- Blackburn's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Burnley at home · Blackburn away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BurnleyBlackburn
Burnley are 22nd after 15 Championship matches (between 10th and 24th so far); Blackburn are 13th after 15 (between 1st and 16th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Burnley 15, Blackburn 15.
Burnley score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Blackburn have let in 3 there.
Blackburn score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Burnley have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Burnley
- vs Birmingham25 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
- at Millwall28 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Preston6 Dec · Championshipwin 51%
- at Southampton9 Dec · Championshipwin 15%
- at Sheffield Utd12 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
Blackburn
- at Watford25 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Charlton28 Nov · Championshipwin 47%
- at Bolton5 Dec · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Norwich8 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Derby12 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.