Stoke City
vs
Birmingham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Stoke City 0–1 Birmingham
The model makes it 33% Stoke City, 30% draw, 37% Birmingham — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Stoke City 1.13, Birmingham 1.24.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Birmingham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Stoke City's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Birmingham's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Stoke City are 3rd on 29 points from 15 games; Birmingham are top on 29 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Portsmouth.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Swansea.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Birmingham 1–1 Stoke City.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stoke City vs Birmingham
Has the model earned this number?
Birmingham at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stoke City vs Birmingham
Stoke City
Championship
- W2-1away to Portsmouth7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn3 November 2026
- W2-0Preston31 October 2026
- D0-0Bristol City24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026
Birmingham
Championship
- W2-1Swansea7 November 2026
- W3-0Millwall3 November 2026
- W3-1away to Lincoln31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cardiff24 October 2026
- W3-0QPR17 October 2026
What these results say
- Stoke City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stoke City
Chance to finish in the top two · 9% today
Birmingham
Chance to finish in the top two · 39% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Stoke City
Birmingham and Stoke City have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Birmingham on 24 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Stoke City | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Jan 2026
ChampionshipBirmingham 1–1 Stoke City - 13 Sep 2025
ChampionshipStoke City 1–0 Birmingham - 20 Jan 2024
ChampionshipStoke City 1–2 Birmingham - 26 Dec 2023
ChampionshipBirmingham 1–3 Stoke City - 10 Apr 2023
ChampionshipBirmingham 0–0 Stoke City - 5 Nov 2022
ChampionshipStoke City 1–2 Birmingham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Birmingham's attack rates 15% above Stoke City's, and Birmingham concede 17% fewer than Stoke City. That gives Birmingham the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Stoke City | 0.72 | 1.24 |
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Birmingham
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske61
- L. Millar43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stoke City a 3.5% chance of the title and Birmingham 21.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Stoke City against 1.24 for Birmingham. Stoke City's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.03 for Birmingham.
How the model reaches 37% for Birmingham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Birmingham to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Stoke City's ratings add 3 points and Birmingham's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Stoke City's ratings33%+3
- Birmingham's ratings37%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stoke City at home · Birmingham away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Stoke CityBirmingham
Stoke City are 3rd after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 23rd so far); Birmingham are 1st after 15 (between 1st and 15th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Stoke City 15, Birmingham 15.
Stoke City score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Birmingham have let in 1 there.
Birmingham score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Stoke City have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stoke City
- vs Millwall25 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- at West Ham28 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- vs QPR5 Dec · Championshipwin 43%
- at Lincoln9 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- vs West Brom12 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
Birmingham
- at Burnley25 Nov · Championshipwin 47%
- vs Bolton28 Nov · Championshipwin 61%
- at Charlton5 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
- vs Watford8 Dec · Championshipwin 60%
- at Portsmouth12 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.