Getafe
vs
Atletico Madrid
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Getafe 0–1 Atletico Madrid
The model makes it 19% Getafe, 29% draw, 52% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 5.26, 3.45 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Getafe 0.69, Atletico Madrid 1.48.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Atletico Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Getafe's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Atletico Madrid's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Getafe are 15th on 12 points from 12 games; Atletico Madrid are 3rd on 28 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Getafe have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Villarreal.
- Atletico Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Barcelona.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Madrid 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 July 2026, ended Atletico Madrid 4–1 Getafe.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Getafe vs Atletico Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Madrid at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Getafe vs Atletico Madrid
Getafe
La Liga
- L0-2away to Villarreal8 November 2026
- W3-1Sevilla1 November 2026
- L0-4away to Athletic Club25 October 2026
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
Atletico Madrid
La Liga
- L1-2Barcelona8 November 2026
- W2-0away to Levante31 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo La Coruna24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Espanyol17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Alaves10 October 2026
What these results say
- Getafe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Getafe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Getafe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
Atletico Madrid
Chance to finish in the top four · 93% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Getafe
Atletico Madrid and Getafe have met 6 times in the records we hold, Atletico Madrid has won 5 of them to Getafe's 1.
The record
Atletico Madrid won the last one 4–1 on 29 Jul 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 |
| Getafe | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 29 Jul 2026
Friendlies ClubsAtletico Madrid 4–1 Getafe - 14 Mar 2026
La LigaAtletico Madrid 1–0 Getafe - 23 Nov 2025
La LigaGetafe 0–1 Atletico Madrid - 9 Mar 2025
La LigaGetafe 2–1 Atletico Madrid - 4 Feb 2025
Copa del ReyAtletico Madrid 5–0 Getafe - 15 Dec 2024
La LigaAtletico Madrid 1–0 Getafe
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atletico Madrid's attack rates 121% above Getafe's, and Atletico Madrid concede 21% fewer than Getafe. That gives Atletico Madrid the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| Getafe | 0.61 | 0.89 |
Leading scorers: Getafe and Atletico Madrid
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Getafe a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Madrid 5.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Getafe against 1.48 for Atletico Madrid. Getafe's attack/defence rating is 0.61/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.35/0.7 for Atletico Madrid.
How the model reaches 52% for Atletico Madrid to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Madrid to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Getafe's ratings add 10 points and Atletico Madrid's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Getafe's ratings38%+10
- Atletico Madrid's ratings52%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Getafe at home · Atletico Madrid away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GetafeAtletico Madrid
Getafe are 15th after 12 La Liga matches (between 7th and 20th so far); Atletico Madrid are 3rd after 12 (between 1st and 6th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Getafe 12, Atletico Madrid 12.
Getafe score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Atletico Madrid have let in 3 there.
Atletico Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Getafe have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Getafe
- at FC Iberia 199926 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 39%
- at Espanyol30 Nov · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Valencia6 Dec · La Ligawin 37%
- at Real Sociedad13 Dec · La Ligawin 18%
- at Ajax17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%
Atletico Madrid
- vs Viking25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 72%
- at Elche28 Nov · La Ligawin 50%
- at Barcelona2 Dec · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Real Betis6 Dec · La Ligawin 51%
- at PSV Eindhoven9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.