Arsenal
vs
Hull City
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Arsenal 1–0 Hull City
The model makes it 61% Arsenal, 25% draw, 14% Hull City — fair odds of 1.64, 4.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.87, Hull City 0.65.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,485 settled matches.
One-sided: Arsenal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Arsenal's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Hull City's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 831 matches.
Key facts
- Arsenal are 2nd on 18 points from 7 games; Hull City are 10th on 9 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Nottingham Forest.
- Hull City have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Fulham.
- Last 6 meetings: Arsenal 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 February 2017, ended Arsenal 2–0 Hull City.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arsenal vs Hull City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 61% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arsenal vs Hull City
Arsenal
Premier League
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest18 October 2026
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
Hull City
Premier League
- L0-1away to Fulham17 October 2026
- D2-2Everton11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Newcastle19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hull City did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hull City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 18 |
| 10 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Hull City
Arsenal and Hull City have met 6 times in the records we hold, Arsenal has won 5 of them to Hull City's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Arsenal won the last one 2–0 on 11 Feb 2017.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 2 |
| Hull City | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Feb 2017
Premier LeagueArsenal 2–0 Hull City - 17 Sep 2016
Premier LeagueHull City 1–4 Arsenal - 8 Mar 2016
FA CupHull City 0–4 Arsenal - 20 Feb 2016
FA CupArsenal 0–0 Hull City - 4 May 2015
Premier LeagueHull City 1–3 Arsenal - 4 Jan 2015
FA CupArsenal 2–0 Hull City
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Hull City
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- B. Saka30
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arsenal carry a model rating of 7.34 against 6.88 for Hull City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Arsenal and 0.65 for Hull City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arsenal rate 1.39 in attack and 0.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hull City rate 0.88 and 0.84.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arsenal a 29.3% chance of the title and Hull City 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Arsenal against 0.65 for Hull City. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.39/0.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.84 for Hull City.
How the model reaches 61% for Arsenal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Arsenal to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Arsenal's ratings add 24 points and Hull City's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Arsenal's ratings65%+24
- Hull City's ratings61%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arsenal at home · Hull City away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ArsenalHull City
Arsenal are 2nd after 7 Premier League matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Hull City are 10th after 7 (between 2nd and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Arsenal 7, Hull City 7.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Hull City have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Arsenal
- at Newcastle21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 62%
- vs Borussia Dortmund24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 51%
Hull City
- vs Brighton22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- at Crystal Palace29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs Nottingham Forest2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.