FA Cup predictions

13 matches ahead, from 7 November, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Barnet, 64% against Tranmere. 2 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.

Saturday 7 November — 13 matches

15:00 UTC Huddersfield vs Exeter City — model 50% / 31% / 19%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.23 · 5.26. Edge: Huddersfield
15:00 UTC Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United — model 32% / 26% / 42%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 3.85 · 2.38. Edge: Cambridge United
15:00 UTC Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched
15:00 UTC Oxford United vs Stevenage — model 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.70 · 4.55. Edge: Oxford United
15:00 UTC Gillingham vs Barrow — model 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.17 · 4.35. Edge: Gillingham
15:00 UTC Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — model 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.70 · 3.33. Evenly matched
15:00 UTC Accrington Stanley vs Wycombe — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
15:00 UTC Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon — model 52% / 27% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.70 · 4.76. Edge: Crewe
15:00 UTC Newport County vs Walsall — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
15:00 UTC Barnet vs Tranmere — model 64% / 19% / 17%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.56 · 5.26 · 5.88. Edge: Barnet
15:00 UTC York vs Northampton — model 51% / 28% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.57 · 4.76. Edge: York
15:00 UTC Bromley vs Rotherham — model 43% / 25% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 4.00 · 3.13. Evenly matched
20:00 UTC Peterborough vs Reading — model 31% / 26% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 3.85 · 2.33. Edge: Reading