1/128-finals · 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon FA Cup prediction

Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Our model says: Crewe 1–0 AFC Wimbledon

The model makes it 52% Crewe, 27% draw, 21% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Crewe 1.71, AFC Wimbledon 0.88.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.

Edge to Crewe: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Crewe's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and AFC Wimbledon's from 57 League One matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Crewe are 3rd in League Two on 21 points from 12 games; AFC Wimbledon are 16th in League One on 12 points from 11 games.
  • Crewe have won 3 of their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Exeter City.
  • AFC Wimbledon have not won in their last 5 League One games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Mansfield Town.
  • Last 6 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2025, ended AFC Wimbledon 3–0 Crewe.

Chance to go through

FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Crewe56%
  • Level after ninety minutes25%
  • AFC Wimbledon19%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

More FA Cup predictions

All FA Cup predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

49%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Crewe win Draw AFC Wimbledon win
  1. 1–012%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Crewe first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 35%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Crewe at 52% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

Crewe

League Two

  • L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
  • W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Swindon Town10 October 2026
  • W3-1Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026

AFC Wimbledon

League One

  • L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Plymouth10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026
  • D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026

What these results say

  • Crewe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Crewe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AFC Wimbledon did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • AFC Wimbledon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3CreweLeague Two125611511+421
16AFC WimbledonLeague One11335718-1112

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League Two · League One

Head-to-head: Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

  • 11 February 2025AFC Wimbledon 3–0 CreweLeague Two
  • 28 January 2025Crewe 1–1 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
  • 23 March 2024Crewe 1–1 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
  • 16 September 2023AFC Wimbledon 2–2 CreweLeague Two
  • 7 January 2023Crewe 0–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
  • 25 October 2022AFC Wimbledon 1–1 CreweLeague Two

Leading scorers: Crewe and AFC Wimbledon

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson51

AFC Wimbledon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Stockley41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Crewe carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6 for AFC Wimbledon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Crewe and 0.88 for AFC Wimbledon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Crewe rate 0.50 in attack and 1.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AFC Wimbledon rate 0.38 and 2.10.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Crewe the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Crewe against 0.88 for AFC Wimbledon. Crewe's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/2.1 for AFC Wimbledon.

How the model reaches 52% for Crewe to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Crewe to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Crewe's ratings take away 30 points and AFC Wimbledon's ratings add 38 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Crewe's ratings14%−30
  4. AFC Wimbledon's ratings52%+38

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

CreweAFC Wimbledon
12Matches11
5W 6D 1LRecord3W 3D 5L
15 1.3 per gameGoals scored7 0.6 per game
11 0.9 per gameGoals conceded18 1.6 per game
4 of 12Clean sheets5 of 11
2 of 12Failed to score5 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored–
21 1.8 per gameYellow cards18 1.6 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape5-4-1 5×

Crewe at home · AFC Wimbledon away

6Played6
3W 3D 0LRecord1W 1D 4L
11–7Goals for – against5–15
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, this season — Crewe in the League Two, AFC Wimbledon in the League One. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Crewe 12 in the League Two, AFC Wimbledon 11 in the League One.

Crewe scored 222423
AFC Wimbledon conceded 153215

Crewe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); AFC Wimbledon have let in 2 there.

AFC Wimbledon scored 132011
Crewe conceded 034102

AFC Wimbledon score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Crewe have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Crewe

  • vs Newport County14 Nov · League Twowin 47%
  • at Gillingham21 Nov · League Twowin 37%
  • vs Grimsby28 Nov · League Twowin 40%
  • at Accrington Stanley1 Dec · League Twowin 34%

AFC Wimbledon

  • vs Blackpool14 Nov · League Onewin 30%
  • at Leyton Orient21 Nov · League Onewin 20%
  • vs Barnsley28 Nov · League Onewin 34%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.