York
vs
Northampton
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: York 1–0 Northampton
The model makes it 51% York, 28% draw, 21% Northampton — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: York 1.54, Northampton 0.78.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to York: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. York's rating is built from 11 League Two matches and Northampton's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- York are 6th on 17 points from 11 games; Northampton are 23rd on 10 points from 10 games — League Two.
- York are unbeaten in 4 League Two games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Accrington Stanley.
- Northampton have won 1 of their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Tranmere.
- Last 6 meetings: Northampton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended York 1–1 Northampton.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- York55%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- Northampton18%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: York vs Northampton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts York at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into York vs Northampton
York
League Two
- D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County17 October 2026
- D1-1Northampton10 October 2026
- W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chesterfield19 September 2026
Northampton
League Two
- L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
- W2-0away to Grimsby17 October 2026
- D1-1away to York10 October 2026
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shrewsbury12 September 2026
What these results say
- York failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- York scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- York conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
- Northampton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Northampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 17 |
| 23 | Northampton | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: York vs Northampton
- 10 October 2026York 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 23 February 2016York 1–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 6 February 2016Northampton 2–0 YorkLeague Two
- 21 February 2015Northampton 3–0 YorkLeague Two
- 16 August 2014York 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 11 January 2014Northampton 0–2 YorkLeague Two
Leading scorers: York and Northampton
York
GoalsAssists
- O. Pearce64
- A. Newby61
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
York carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.1 for Northampton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for York and 0.78 for Northampton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
York rate 0.59 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Northampton rate 0.32 and 1.60.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives York the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for York against 0.78 for Northampton. York's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.32/1.6 for Northampton.
How the model reaches 51% for York to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for York to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, York's ratings take away 29 points and Northampton's ratings add 36 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- York's ratings15%−29
- Northampton's ratings51%+36
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
York at home · Northampton away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: York 11, Northampton 10.
York score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Northampton have let in 1 there.
Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); York have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
York
- at Rochdale14 Nov · League Twowin 40%
- vs Walsall21 Nov · League Twowin 41%
- at Colchester28 Nov · League Twowin 36%
Northampton
- at Salford City14 Nov · League Twowin 21%
- vs Rochdale21 Nov · League Twowin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.