Huddersfield
vs
Exeter City
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Huddersfield 1–0 Exeter City
The model makes it 50% Huddersfield, 31% draw, 19% Exeter City — fair odds of 2.00, 3.23 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Huddersfield 1.34, Exeter City 0.63.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Huddersfield: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Huddersfield's rating is built from 57 League One matches and Exeter City's from 12 League Two matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Huddersfield are 2nd in League One on 22 points from 11 games; Exeter City are 10th in League Two on 16 points from 12 games.
- Huddersfield are unbeaten in 4 League One games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Peterborough.
- Exeter City are unbeaten in 4 League Two games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Crewe.
- Last 6 meetings: Huddersfield 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 January 2026, ended Huddersfield 2–2 Exeter City.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Huddersfield53%
- Level after ninety minutes30%
- Exeter City17%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Huddersfield vs Exeter City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Huddersfield at 50% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Huddersfield vs Exeter City
Huddersfield
League One
- W4-1Peterborough20 October 2026
- W2-0away to Plymouth17 October 2026
- D2-2Sheffield Wednesday10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Burton Albion3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bromley19 September 2026
Exeter City
League Two
- W2-0Crewe20 October 2026
- D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Shrewsbury10 October 2026
- W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026
What these results say
- Huddersfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Huddersfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Huddersfield had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Exeter City had two goals or fewer.
- Exeter City kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Huddersfield and Exeter City in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Huddersfield | League One | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 10 | Exeter City | League Two | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League One · League Two
Head-to-head: Huddersfield vs Exeter City
- 4 January 2026Huddersfield 2–2 Exeter CityLeague One
- 27 September 2025Exeter City 0–1 HuddersfieldLeague One
- 26 April 2025Exeter City 3–1 HuddersfieldLeague One
- 26 October 2024Huddersfield 2–0 Exeter CityLeague One
- 25 February 2012Huddersfield 2–0 Exeter CityLeague One
- 15 October 2011Exeter City 0–4 HuddersfieldLeague One
Leading scorers: Huddersfield and Exeter City
Huddersfield
GoalsAssists
- J. Taylor82
- D. Sanches Fernandes55
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Huddersfield carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.32 for Exeter City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Huddersfield and 0.63 for Exeter City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Huddersfield rate 0.70 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Exeter City rate 0.33 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Huddersfield the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Huddersfield against 0.63 for Exeter City. Huddersfield's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/1.18 for Exeter City.
How the model reaches 50% for Huddersfield to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Huddersfield to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Huddersfield's ratings take away 20 points and Exeter City's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Huddersfield's ratings24%−20
- Exeter City's ratings50%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Huddersfield at home · Exeter City away
League matches only, this season — Huddersfield in the League One, Exeter City in the League Two. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Huddersfield 11 in the League One, Exeter City 12 in the League Two.
Huddersfield score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Exeter City have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Huddersfield
- at Wycombe14 Nov · League Onewin 41%
- vs Leicester21 Nov · League Onewin 53%
- at Doncaster26 Nov · League Onewin 45%
Exeter City
- vs Cheltenham14 Nov · League Twowin 45%
- at Oldham21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- vs Crawley Town28 Nov · League Twowin 49%
- at Chesterfield1 Dec · League Twowin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.