Peterborough
vs
Reading
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Peterborough 1–2 Reading
The model makes it 31% Peterborough, 26% draw, 43% Reading — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Peterborough 1.39, Reading 1.72.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Reading: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Peterborough's rating is built from 57 League One matches and Reading's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Peterborough are 21st on 9 points from 11 games; Reading are 6th on 18 points from 11 games — League One.
- Peterborough have won 1 of their last 5 League One games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Huddersfield.
- Reading have won 2 of their last 5 League One games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Leyton Orient.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 December 2025, ended Peterborough 1–1 Reading.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Peterborough31%
- Level after ninety minutes24%
- Reading45%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Peterborough vs Reading
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Reading at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Peterborough vs Reading
Peterborough
League One
- L1-4away to Huddersfield20 October 2026
- D2-2Burton Albion17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stockport County26 September 2026
- L0-2Doncaster19 September 2026
Reading
League One
- W1-0Leyton Orient21 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wigan17 October 2026
- W5-1away to Milton Keynes Dons10 October 2026
- D1-1Bradford3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Wycombe26 September 2026
What these results say
- Peterborough conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Reading scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Reading conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Peterborough | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
| 6 | Reading | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Reading
- 29 December 2025Peterborough 1–1 ReadingLeague One
- 9 December 2025Reading 1–2 PeterboroughLeague One
- 29 March 2025Reading 3–1 PeterboroughLeague One
- 23 November 2024Peterborough 1–2 ReadingLeague One
- 26 December 2023Peterborough 2–2 ReadingLeague One
- 5 August 2023Reading 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
Leading scorers: Peterborough and Reading
Peterborough
No player in League One's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Reading
GoalsAssists
- J. Marriott80
- J. Brown41
- Kyreece Lisbie34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Peterborough carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.41 for Reading. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Peterborough and 1.72 for Reading. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Peterborough rate 0.52 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Reading rate 0.68 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Reading the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Peterborough against 1.72 for Reading. Peterborough's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.64 for Reading.
How the model reaches 43% for Reading to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Reading to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Peterborough's ratings add 39 points and Reading's ratings take away 25 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Peterborough's ratings68%+39
- Reading's ratings43%−25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Peterborough at home · Reading away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Peterborough 11, Reading 11.
Reading score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Peterborough have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Peterborough
- vs Oxford United14 Nov · League Onewin 26%
- at Plymouth21 Nov · League Onewin 22%
- vs Cambridge United28 Nov · League Onewin 32%
Reading
- at Stockport County14 Nov · League Onewin 30%
- vs Bromley21 Nov · League Onewin 70%
- at Sheffield Wednesday28 Nov · League Onewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.