Newport County
vs
Walsall
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Newport County 0–1 Walsall
The model makes it 35% Newport County, 28% draw, 37% Walsall — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Newport County 1.31, Walsall 1.37.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Newport County and Walsall are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Newport County's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Walsall's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Newport County are 12th on 15 points from 12 games; Walsall are 4th on 19 points from 11 games — League Two.
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 5 League Two games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Rotherham.
- Walsall are unbeaten in their last 5 League Two games (2 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Oldham.
- Last 6 meetings: Walsall 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Walsall 2–1 Newport County.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Newport County35%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- Walsall38%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newport County vs Walsall
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Walsall at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Newport County vs Walsall
Newport County
League Two
- D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
- D1-1York17 October 2026
- W1-0Colchester10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gillingham3 October 2026
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
Walsall
League Two
- W3-0Oldham20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Swindon Town17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tranmere26 September 2026
- W2-0Port Vale19 September 2026
What these results say
- Newport County went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Newport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Walsall went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Walsall scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Walsall had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newport County | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 15 |
| 4 | Walsall | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newport County vs Walsall
- 21 March 2026Walsall 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 8 November 2025Newport County 2–4 WalsallLeague Two
- 21 April 2025Newport County 0–0 WalsallLeague Two
- 29 December 2024Walsall 2–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 10 February 2024Walsall 0–3 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 20 October 2023Newport County 3–3 WalsallLeague Two
Leading scorers: Newport County and Walsall
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Walsall
GoalsAssists
- A. Pressley70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Newport County carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.24 for Walsall. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Newport County and 1.37 for Walsall. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newport County rate 0.46 in attack and 2.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Walsall rate 0.51 and 1.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Walsall the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Newport County against 1.37 for Walsall. Newport County's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.75 for Walsall.
How the model reaches 37% for Walsall to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Walsall to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Newport County's ratings add 43 points and Walsall's ratings take away 35 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Newport County's ratings72%+43
- Walsall's ratings37%−35
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newport County at home · Walsall away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Newport County 12, Walsall 11.
Newport County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Walsall have let in 1 there.
Walsall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Newport County have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Newport County
- at Crewe14 Nov · League Twowin 26%
- vs Swindon Town21 Nov · League Twowin 38%
- at Port Vale28 Nov · League Twowin 31%
- vs Walsall1 Dec · League Twowin 32%
Walsall
- vs Barnet14 Nov · League Twowin 40%
- at York21 Nov · League Twowin 31%
- vs Northampton28 Nov · League Twowin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.