Bristol Rovers
vs
Cambridge United
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Bristol Rovers 1–2 Cambridge United
The model makes it 32% Bristol Rovers, 26% draw, 42% Cambridge United — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.42, Cambridge United 1.71.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Cambridge United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Bristol Rovers's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Cambridge United's from 11 League One matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bristol Rovers are 16th in League Two on 15 points from 12 games; Cambridge United are 4th in League One on 20 points from 11 games.
- Bristol Rovers are without a win in 4 League Two games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Salford City.
- Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last 5 League One games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Wycombe.
- Last 6 meetings: Bristol Rovers 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Cambridge United 3–1 Bristol Rovers.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Bristol Rovers31%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- Cambridge United44%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cambridge United at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
Bristol Rovers
League Two
- L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026
- L1-3Barnet10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crewe3 October 2026
- W1-0Exeter City26 September 2026
Cambridge United
League One
- D2-2Wycombe20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Barnsley17 October 2026
- W1-0Blackpool10 October 2026
- D1-1AFC Wimbledon26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Oxford United19 September 2026
What these results say
- Bristol Rovers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol Rovers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 |
| 4 | Cambridge United | League One | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League Two · League One
Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
- 14 February 2026Cambridge United 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 2 December 2025Bristol Rovers 2–2 Cambridge UnitedEFL Trophy
- 23 August 2025Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague Two
- 12 August 2025Bristol Rovers 0–2 Cambridge UnitedLeague Cup
- 4 January 2025Cambridge United 0–1 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 31 August 2024Bristol Rovers 2–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
Leading scorers: Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United
Bristol Rovers
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Cambridge United
GoalsAssists
- B. Knight42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bristol Rovers carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.33 for Cambridge United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.71 for Cambridge United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bristol Rovers rate 0.51 in attack and 2.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cambridge United rate 0.61 and 1.71.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cambridge United the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bristol Rovers against 1.71 for Cambridge United. Bristol Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.71 for Cambridge United.
How the model reaches 42% for Cambridge United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cambridge United to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Bristol Rovers's ratings add 43 points and Cambridge United's ratings take away 30 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Bristol Rovers's ratings72%+43
- Cambridge United's ratings42%−30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bristol Rovers at home · Cambridge United away
League matches only, this season — Bristol Rovers in the League Two, Cambridge United in the League One. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Bristol Rovers 12 in the League Two, Cambridge United 11 in the League One.
Bristol Rovers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cambridge United have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bristol Rovers
- vs Chesterfield14 Nov · League Twowin 36%
- at Cheltenham21 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- vs Tranmere28 Nov · League Twowin 46%
- at Oldham1 Dec · League Twowin 30%
Cambridge United
- at Luton14 Nov · League Onewin 31%
- vs Stockport County21 Nov · League Onewin 36%
- at Peterborough28 Nov · League Onewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.