Milton Keynes Dons
vs
Swindon Town
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Swindon Town
The model makes it 43% Milton Keynes Dons, 27% draw, 30% Swindon Town — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Milton Keynes Dons 1.61, Swindon Town 1.25.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Milton Keynes Dons's rating is built from 10 League One matches and Swindon Town's from 58 League Two matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Milton Keynes Dons are 20th in League One on 9 points from 10 games; Swindon Town are 15th in League Two on 15 points from 12 games.
- Milton Keynes Dons have won 1 of their last 5 League One games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Blackpool.
- Swindon Town have won 1 of their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Barnet.
- Last 6 meetings: Milton Keynes Dons 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Swindon Town 1–2 Milton Keynes Dons.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Milton Keynes Dons45%
- Level after ninety minutes26%
- Swindon Town29%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Milton Keynes Dons at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town
Milton Keynes Dons
League One
- L0-2away to Blackpool20 October 2026
- W2-1Luton17 October 2026
- L1-5Reading10 October 2026
- D0-0away to AFC Wimbledon17 September 2026
- D1-1Peterborough12 September 2026
Swindon Town
League Two
- W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall17 October 2026
- L0-1Crewe10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Rochdale3 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026
What these results say
- Milton Keynes Dons failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Milton Keynes Dons conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Swindon Town had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Milton Keynes Dons | League One | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | Swindon Town | League Two | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 15 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League One · League Two
Head-to-head: Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town
- 14 March 2026Swindon Town 1–2 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
- 26 December 2025Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 11 November 2025Milton Keynes Dons 0–4 Swindon TownEFL Trophy
- 3 May 2025Swindon Town 0–0 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
- 9 November 2024Milton Keynes Dons 3–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 17 February 2024Swindon Town 1–2 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
Leading scorers: Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town
Milton Keynes Dons
GoalsAssists
- A. Collins71
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Milton Keynes Dons carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.12 for Swindon Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.25 for Swindon Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Milton Keynes Dons rate 0.47 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swindon Town rate 0.49 and 2.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Milton Keynes Dons the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Milton Keynes Dons against 1.25 for Swindon Town. Milton Keynes Dons's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.11 for Swindon Town.
How the model reaches 43% for Milton Keynes Dons to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Milton Keynes Dons to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Milton Keynes Dons's ratings take away 33 points and Swindon Town's ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Milton Keynes Dons's ratings11%−33
- Swindon Town's ratings43%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Milton Keynes Dons at home · Swindon Town away
League matches only, this season — Milton Keynes Dons in the League One, Swindon Town in the League Two. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Milton Keynes Dons 10 in the League One, Swindon Town 12 in the League Two.
Milton Keynes Dons score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Swindon Town have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Milton Keynes Dons
- vs Burton Albion14 Nov · League Onewin 34%
- at Mansfield Town21 Nov · League Onewin 20%
Swindon Town
- vs Grimsby14 Nov · League Twowin 37%
- at Newport County21 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- vs Chesterfield28 Nov · League Twowin 37%
- at Gillingham1 Dec · League Twowin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.