Fleetwood Town
vs
Rochdale
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Fleetwood Town 2–1 Rochdale
The model makes it 45% Fleetwood Town, 27% draw, 28% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.66, Rochdale 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Fleetwood Town's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Rochdale's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Fleetwood Town are 18th on 14 points from 12 games; Rochdale are 14th on 15 points from 12 games — League Two.
- Fleetwood Town have won 1 of their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Cheltenham.
- Rochdale are without a win in 3 League Two games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Grimsby.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Fleetwood Town 1–2 Rochdale.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Fleetwood Town48%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- Rochdale27%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleetwood Town at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Fleetwood Town
League Two
- L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
- W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
- L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026
Rochdale
League Two
- D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tranmere10 October 2026
- W1-0Swindon Town3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rochdale scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rochdale conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Rochdale.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Rochdale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
- 26 September 2026Fleetwood Town 1–2 RochdaleLeague Two
- 20 July 2024Fleetwood Town 1–1 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2021Rochdale 3–3 Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
- 10 April 2021Fleetwood Town 1–0 RochdaleLeague One
- 3 October 2020Rochdale 2–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 26 December 2019Rochdale 2–3 Fleetwood TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Rochdale
Fleetwood Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Rochdale
GoalsAssists
- D. Brown42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fleetwood Town carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.08 for Rochdale. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.19 for Rochdale. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fleetwood Town rate 0.45 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rochdale rate 0.49 and 2.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 1.19 for Rochdale. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.27 for Rochdale.
How the model reaches 45% for Fleetwood Town to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fleetwood Town to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Fleetwood Town's ratings take away 32 points and Rochdale's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Fleetwood Town's ratings12%−32
- Rochdale's ratings45%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fleetwood Town at home · Rochdale away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Fleetwood Town 12, Rochdale 12.
Fleetwood Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Rochdale have let in 4 there.
Rochdale score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Fleetwood Town have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fleetwood Town
- vs Tranmere14 Nov · League Twowin 45%
- at Crawley Town21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Accrington Stanley28 Nov · League Twowin 40%
- at Northampton1 Dec · League Twowin 31%
Rochdale
- vs York14 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- at Northampton21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- vs Barnet28 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- at Cheltenham1 Dec · League Twowin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.