Bromley
vs
Rotherham
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Bromley 2–1 Rotherham
The model makes it 43% Bromley, 25% draw, 32% Rotherham — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bromley 1.80, Rotherham 1.49.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Bromley's rating is built from 10 League One matches and Rotherham's from 12 League Two matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bromley are 23rd in League One on 8 points from 10 games; Rotherham are 22nd in League Two on 11 points from 12 games.
- Bromley are without a win in 3 League One games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Leicester.
- Rotherham have not won in their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Newport County.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Bromley45%
- Level after ninety minutes24%
- Rotherham31%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bromley vs Rotherham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bromley at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bromley vs Rotherham
Bromley
League One
- L0-4Leicester20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stockport County17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Mansfield Town10 October 2026
- W2-1Huddersfield19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Blackpool12 September 2026
Rotherham
League Two
- D2-2Newport County20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
- L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Exeter City3 October 2026
- D1-1Crewe26 September 2026
What these results say
- Bromley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bromley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bromley had three goals or more.
- Rotherham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bromley and Rotherham in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bromley | League One | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 8 |
| 22 | Rotherham | League Two | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League One · League Two
Head-to-head: Bromley vs Rotherham
- 6 November 2021Rotherham 3–0 BromleyFA Cup
Leading scorers: Bromley and Rotherham
Bromley
GoalsAssists
- V. Adeboyejo40
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bromley carry a model rating of 5.93 against 5.99 for Rotherham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Bromley and 1.49 for Rotherham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bromley rate 0.42 in attack and 2.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rotherham rate 0.47 and 2.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bromley the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Bromley against 1.49 for Rotherham. Bromley's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.64 for Rotherham.
How the model reaches 43% for Bromley to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bromley to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Bromley's ratings take away 37 points and Rotherham's ratings add 36 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Bromley's ratings7%−37
- Rotherham's ratings43%+36
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bromley at home · Rotherham away
League matches only, this season — Bromley in the League One, Rotherham in the League Two. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Bromley 10 in the League One, Rotherham 12 in the League Two.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bromley
- vs Notts County14 Nov · League Onewin 26%
- at Reading21 Nov · League Onewin 12%
Rotherham
- vs Crawley Town14 Nov · League Twowin 45%
- at Grimsby21 Nov · League Twowin 22%
- vs Oldham28 Nov · League Twowin 35%
- at Barnet1 Dec · League Twowin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.