Which leagues draw the most? 51 leagues, two seasons, measured

A quarter of league matches end level: 26.3% of the 30,633 we counted across 51 leagues over their last two completed seasons. But the league you watch changes that a lot. In Egypt's Premier League, more than one match in three was drawn (35.6%); in Qatar's Stars League, about one in six (17.0%).

Every league, side by side

Every league ranked by the share of its matches that ended level, over its last two completed seasons.

The big five

Among the five biggest leagues the spread is narrower but still real. Serie A (Italy) 27.2%, Premier League (England) 25.9%, Bundesliga (Germany) 25.3%, La Liga 25.0%, Ligue 1 22.6%. Ligue 1 is the outlier: across these two seasons it drew less often than any other big league, and less often than all but 5 of the 51 leagues here.

Fewer goals, more draws

The clearest pattern in the table is goals. Leagues that score less draw more: across the 51 leagues, goals per match and draw rate move against each other with a correlation of -0.71, which is strong for anything in football. Egypt's Premier League averaged 2.07 goals a match and drew 35.6% of the time; Qatar's Stars League averaged 3.34 and drew 17.0%.

It is arithmetic more than style. A draw needs both sides to finish on the same number, and the fewer goals a match produces, the more of its likely scorelines are 0-0 and 1-1. In a high-scoring league the same two teams have many more ways to finish apart.

Second tiers draw more

In all 5 of the big football countries, the second division drew more often than the first.

• Italy: Serie B 32.2% against Serie A 27.2%.
• England: Championship 27.4% against Premier League 25.9%.
• Spain: Segunda División 26.7% against La Liga 25.0%.
• France: Ligue 2 27.0% against Ligue 1 22.6%.
• Germany: 2. Bundesliga 26.0% against Bundesliga 25.3%.

A second tier is usually more evenly matched and scores a little less, and both push the same way. The gap is widest in Italy.

How sure are these numbers?

A typical league here has around 588 matches across the two seasons. At that size a draw rate carries a margin of roughly ±3.5 points either way, so two leagues a point or two apart are not really different. The ends of the table are: a gap of more than ten points between the top and the bottom does not come from chance.

What it means for our model

Our model does not use a fixed draw rate. It works out each match's likely scorelines from the two sides' expected goals, so a low-scoring league gets more draws without being told to. How close does that land? On the matches on our board this week, in the 12 leagues with at least 5 of them, the model's average draw chance sits above the league's real rate in 9 and within two points of it in 6.

• Stars League (Qatar): we give the draw 26.5% on average (6 matches); the league drew 17.0%.
• League One (England): we give the draw 28.9% on average (20 matches); the league drew 24.6%.
• Ligue 2 (France): we give the draw 30.8% on average (5 matches); the league drew 27.0%.
• Liga MX (Mexico): we give the draw 27.8% on average (9 matches); the league drew 24.5%.
• Serie A (Brazil): we give the draw 28.7% on average (10 matches); the league drew 26.3%.
• League Two (England): we give the draw 28.8% on average (24 matches); the league drew 26.6%.
• Major League Soccer (USA): we give the draw 26.9% on average (18 matches); the league drew 25.0%.
• Segunda División (Spain): we give the draw 28.7% on average (22 matches); the league drew 26.7%.
• Primera A (Colombia): we give the draw 29.5% on average (25 matches); the league drew 27.7%.
• Premier Division (Ireland): we give the draw 29.2% on average (6 matches); the league drew 29.3%.
• Botola Pro (Morocco): we give the draw 31.3% on average (15 matches); the league drew 31.8%.
• Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina): we give the draw 31.6% on average (16 matches); the league drew 32.5%.

A handful of matches makes a rough average, so read single rows loosely; the pattern across them is the point. Where the league draws a lot, the model is close. Where it draws little, the model is too generous with the draw. That is a known weakness, and this table is how we measure it; the methodology sets out what the model does and where it is known to be wrong, and the track record shows how its calls have landed.

How this was counted

Results at 90 minutes. League matches only, no cups and no national teams. Each league's last two completed seasons, from our data provider, API-Football. The model figures are the average draw probability we published for the upcoming matches on our board on 25 September 2026.

Published by Fulltime Stats, an independent site run by Leo Tempo. Who we are.

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