AC Milan
vs
Inter
Serie A prediction
Our model says: AC Milan 1–2 Inter
The model makes it 31% AC Milan, 26% draw, 43% Inter — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.36, Inter 1.67.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Inter: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- AC Milan are 6th on 12 points from 6 games; Inter are top on 19 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sassuolo.
- Inter are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Bologna.
- Last 6 meetings: AC Milan 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 August 2026, ended AC Milan 1–1 Inter.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AC Milan vs Inter
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 43% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AC Milan vs Inter
AC Milan
- D1-1away to Sassuolo11 October 2026
- W3-0Lecce20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
Inter
- W3-1away to Bologna17 October 2026
- W3-0Parma10 October 2026
- D2-2away to AS Roma19 September 2026
- W5-3Udinese14 September 2026
- W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
What these results say
- AC Milan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AC Milan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Inter had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Inter
AC Milan and Inter have met 6 times in the records we hold, AC Milan has won 3 of them to Inter's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at AC Milan on 5 Aug 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| Inter | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 5 Aug 2026
Friendlies ClubsAC Milan 1–1 Inter - 8 Mar 2026
Serie AAC Milan 1–0 Inter - 23 Nov 2025
Serie AInter 0–1 AC Milan - 23 Apr 2025
Coppa ItaliaInter 0–3 AC Milan - 2 Apr 2025
Coppa ItaliaAC Milan 1–1 Inter - 2 Feb 2025
Serie AAC Milan 1–1 Inter
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: AC Milan and Inter
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot32
- Diego Moreira30
Inter
GoalsAssists
- Lautaro Martínez40
- M. Thuram32
- H. Çalhanoğlu30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AC Milan carry a model rating of 7.11 against 7.28 for Inter. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for AC Milan and 1.67 for Inter. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Milan rate 1.22 in attack and 0.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter rate 1.82 and 0.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AC Milan a 2% chance of the title and Inter 43%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for AC Milan against 1.67 for Inter. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.82/0.8 for Inter.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AC Milan at home · Inter away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AC MilanInter
AC Milan are 4th after 6 Serie A matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Inter are 1st after 7 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: AC Milan 6, Inter 6.
AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Inter have let in 0 there.
Inter score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); AC Milan have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
AC Milan
- vs Ferencvarosi TC5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 65%
Inter
- at Feyenoord3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- vs Como8 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.