Weekend preview, 31 October - 1 November: PSV Eindhoven the surest call of 402 matches
Our model has a prediction for 402 matches this weekend (31 October - 1 November), across 71 competitions. It is surest about PSV Eindhoven: 91% to beat Willem II, most likely 4-0. 42 matches are within three points either way, games where the draw is a real outcome.
The biggest matches
- Manchester City vs Brighton (Premier League (England), Saturday 15:00 UTC): 49% / 24% / 27%, most likely 2-1.
- Chelsea vs Manchester United (Premier League (England), Saturday 12:30 UTC): 37% / 23% / 40%, most likely 1-2.
- Liverpool vs Arsenal (Premier League (England), Sunday 16:30 UTC): 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 0-1.
- AC Milan vs Inter (Serie A (Italy), Saturday 19:45 UTC): 27% / 25% / 48%, most likely 1-2.
- Bournemouth vs Leeds (Premier League (England), Saturday 15:00 UTC): 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0.
The surest calls
- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II (Eredivisie): PSV Eindhoven at 91%, most likely 4-0.
- Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga (Austria)): Red Bull Salzburg at 80%, most likely 3-0.
- Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh (Pro League (Saudi-Arabia)): Al-Hilal at 78%, most likely 3-0.
- Amed vs Eyüpspor (Süper Lig): Amed at 77%, most likely 3-0.
- FC Porto vs Estoril (Primeira Liga): FC Porto at 76%, most likely 2-0.
For scale: calls the model rated at 75% or more have landed 68% of the time, across 154 settled predictions. Sure is not certain.
The coin flips
Home and away within three points of each other. The model still names a pick, but the draw is live.
- Chelsea vs Manchester United (Premier League (England)): 37% / 23% / 40%.
- Coventry vs Sunderland (Premier League (England)): 35% / 29% / 36%.
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo (La Liga): 35% / 31% / 34%.
- PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie): 38% / 26% / 36%.
- Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK (Süper Lig): 35% / 27% / 38%.
And 37 more, each marked "Tight game" on its match page.
How to read these
The three numbers are the model's chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. Every match has its own page with the full breakdown, and the fixtures page lists the whole weekend. How the probabilities are made is in the methodology; how often they have been right, in the track record. Statistical estimates, not betting advice.