Analysis · By Leo Tempo · Tuesday 13 October 2026

Europe's title races: from done deals to coin flips

We simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times in each of 25 European top divisions. In 3 of them the title is close to a coin flip; in 5 it is all but decided.

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Figures as of 13 October 2026, after the weekend's and Monday's matches.

Few title races in Europe are as close as Norway's. After 22 rounds Bodø/Glimt have 53 points and Viking 53, and our model gives Bodø/Glimt 51.0% and Viking 49.0%. Third-placed Tromsø are 14 points back and, in practice, out of it.

Coin flips

Chance of finishing first

Romania — Liga I *

Dinamo Bucuresti 43.6% · Universitatea Craiova 42.5% · Rapid 12.0%

Italy — Serie A

Inter 44.2% · AS Roma 37.6% · Napoli 4.3%

Norway — Eliteserien

Bodø/Glimt 51.0% · Viking 49.0%

Wide open

Chance of finishing first

Turkey — Süper Lig

Fenerbahçe 31.6% · Galatasaray 29.9% · Beşiktaş 15.1%

Hungary — NB I

Ferencváros 34.7% · Győri ETO 23.6% · Puskás Akadémia 14.2%

A favourite, but a race

Chance of finishing first

Poland — Ekstraklasa

Lech Poznan 47.4% · Gornik Zabrze 24.4% · Legia Warszawa 15.9%

Greece — Super League 1 *

AEK Athens FC 48.9% · Panathinaikos 30.7% · PAOK 10.4%

France — Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 50.0% · Monaco 17.4% · Lille 13.2%

Netherlands — Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven 51.0% · Feyenoord 33.0% · AZ Alkmaar 6.8%

Denmark — Superliga *

FC Copenhagen 52.1% · FC Midtjylland 38.9% · Viborg 4.8%

Austria — Bundesliga *

Rapid Wien 56.4% · Red Bull Salzburg 28.8% · LASK 10.5%

Belgium — Jupiler Pro League *

Club Brugge KV 57.0% · Union St. Gilloise 33.1% · Gent 7.5%

Portugal — Primeira Liga

FC Porto 59.0% · Benfica 26.0% · Sporting CP 14.1%

Clear favourites

Chance of finishing first

Israel — Ligat Ha'al *

Maccabi Tel Aviv 60.8% · Maccabi Haifa 14.7% · Hapoel Beer Sheva 11.1%

England — Premier League

Manchester City 61.8% · Arsenal 27.3% · Brighton 9.1%

Croatia — HNL

Dinamo Zagreb 63.9% · HNK Hajduk Split 26.0% · NK Varazdin 6.3%

Scotland — Premiership

Celtic 65.8% · Rangers 22.2% · Heart of Midlothian 11.5%

Spain — La Liga

Barcelona 67.8% · Real Madrid 23.5% · Atletico Madrid 5.5%

Bulgaria — First League *

Levski Sofia 68.2% · Ludogorets 21.6% · CSKA Sofia 9.5%

Ukraine — Premier League

Shakhtar Donetsk 80.4% · Polessya 7.6% · Dynamo Kyiv 5.8%

All but decided

Chance of finishing first

Sweden — Allsvenskan

Sirius 87.1% · Djurgardens IF 9.2% · Hammarby FF 3.6%

Ireland — Premier Division

Shamrock Rovers 88.5% · St Patrick's Athletic 10.0% · Bohemians 1.4%

Switzerland — Super League *

FC Lugano 89.3% · BSC Young Boys 9.2% · FC Sion 1.5%

Czechia — Czech Liga *

Slavia Praha 93.4% · Sparta Praha 4.9% · Teplice 0.5%

Serbia — Super Liga *

FK Crvena Zvezda 94.5% · Vojvodina 5.2% · Železničar Pančevo 0.2%

Each league's remaining fixtures were played 10,000 times by our own match model, from the current table. Leagues marked * split into a championship round after the regular season, so for them the figure is the chance of finishing the regular season first, not of winning the title. The German Bundesliga is missing because our model waits for six rounds and it has played five; it joins after the next round. A statistical estimate, not betting advice.

Every league we follow, updated after each round, is on our title-races page. Media are welcome to quote these figures, credited to Fulltime Stats with a link to this page.

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