Zrinjski
vs
FK Sarajevo
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Zrinjski 1–0 FK Sarajevo
The model makes it 56% Zrinjski, 26% draw, 18% FK Sarajevo — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Zrinjski 1.78, FK Sarajevo 0.81.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to Zrinjski: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Zrinjski's rating is built from 47 Bosnian Premier League matches and FK Sarajevo's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Zrinjski are top on 30 points from 11 games; FK Sarajevo are 3rd on 15 points from 10 games — Premijer Liga.
- Zrinjski are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Radnik Bijeljina.
- FK Sarajevo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Radnik Bijeljina.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended FK Sarajevo 0–1 Zrinjski.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zrinjski at 56% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo
Zrinjski
Premijer Liga
- W1-0Radnik Bijeljina23 October 2026
- W3-0away to Čelik18 October 2026
- W6-2away to Sloga Doboj11 October 2026
- W2-0Velež19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Borac Banja Luka12 September 2026
FK Sarajevo
Premijer Liga
- D1-1away to Radnik Bijeljina17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Čelik11 October 2026
- W2-0Sloga Doboj20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velež13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo9 September 2026
What these results say
- Zrinjski won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zrinjski scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FK Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
- FK Sarajevo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 30 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo
- 29 August 2026FK Sarajevo 0–1 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
- 4 July 2026Zrinjski 2–1 FK SarajevoFriendlies Clubs
- 11 April 2026FK Sarajevo 2–1 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
- 18 March 2026Zrinjski 0–0 FK SarajevoSuper Cup
- 14 December 2025Zrinjski 0–1 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 6 October 2025FK Sarajevo 1–1 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
The two sides
Zrinjski carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.33 for FK Sarajevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Zrinjski and 0.81 for FK Sarajevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zrinjski rate 0.76 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Sarajevo rate 0.50 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zrinjski a 57.3% chance of the title and FK Sarajevo 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zrinjski the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Zrinjski against 0.81 for FK Sarajevo. Zrinjski's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.44 for FK Sarajevo.
How the model reaches 56% for Zrinjski to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zrinjski to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Zrinjski's ratings take away 14 points and FK Sarajevo's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Zrinjski's ratings30%−14
- FK Sarajevo's ratings56%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zrinjski at home · FK Sarajevo away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Zrinjski 11, FK Sarajevo 10.
Zrinjski score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); FK Sarajevo have let in 3 there.
FK Sarajevo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Zrinjski have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zrinjski
- at BSK Banja Luka21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 58%
- at Siroki Brijeg28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 53%
- vs Borac Banja Luka2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 43%
- at Velež5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 55%
FK Sarajevo
- vs Siroki Brijeg21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 54%
- at Borac Banja Luka28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 18%
- vs Velež2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.