Paykan
vs
Nassaji Mazandaran
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Paykan 1–0 Nassaji Mazandaran
The model makes it 39% Paykan, 31% draw, 30% Nassaji Mazandaran — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Paykan 1.16, Nassaji Mazandaran 0.96.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Paykan's rating is built from 32 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Nassaji Mazandaran's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Paykan are 12th on 9 points from 9 games; Nassaji Mazandaran are 11th on 10 points from 9 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Paykan are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Fajr Sepasi.
- Nassaji Mazandaran are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Foolad FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Nassaji Mazandaran 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2024, ended Paykan 1–1 Nassaji Mazandaran.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paykan vs Nassaji Mazandaran
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paykan at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Paykan vs Nassaji Mazandaran
Paykan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L0-2away to Fajr Sepasi19 October 2026
- D1-1Shams Azar Qazvin10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Esteghlal FC10 September 2026
- W2-0Sanat Naft6 September 2026
- L0-1away to ZOB Ahan2 September 2026
Nassaji Mazandaran
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D0-0away to Foolad FC18 October 2026
- D1-1ZOB Ahan8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak13 September 2026
- W1-0Kheybar Khorramabad7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Malavan2 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Paykan had two goals or fewer.
- Paykan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paykan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nassaji Mazandaran went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Nassaji Mazandaran had two goals or fewer.
- Nassaji Mazandaran scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Paykan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Paykan vs Nassaji Mazandaran
- 15 February 2024Paykan 1–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 9 August 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 April 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 3–0 PaykanHazfi Cup
- 7 February 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 August 2022Paykan 0–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 6 March 2022Paykan 0–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Paykan carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.32 for Nassaji Mazandaran. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Paykan and 0.96 for Nassaji Mazandaran. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paykan rate 0.49 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nassaji Mazandaran rate 0.49 and 1.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nassaji Mazandaran, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paykan the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Paykan against 0.96 for Nassaji Mazandaran. Paykan's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.46 for Nassaji Mazandaran.
How the model reaches 39% for Paykan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Paykan to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Paykan's ratings take away 27 points and Nassaji Mazandaran's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Paykan's ratings17%−27
- Nassaji Mazandaran's ratings39%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Paykan at home · Nassaji Mazandaran away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Paykan 9, Nassaji Mazandaran 9.
Paykan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Nassaji Mazandaran have let in 2 there.
Nassaji Mazandaran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Paykan have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.