Velež
vs
Čelik
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Velež 1–0 Čelik
The model makes it 42% Velež, 28% draw, 30% Čelik — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Velež 1.46, Čelik 1.13.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Velež's rating is built from 45 Bosnian Premier League matches and Čelik's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Velež are bottom on 8 points from 9 games; Čelik are 7th on 9 points from 10 games — Premijer Liga.
- Velež have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Siroki Brijeg.
- Čelik are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Zrinjski.
- Last 3 meetings: Čelik 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 August 2026, ended Čelik 3–0 Velež.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Velež vs Čelik
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velež at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Velež vs Čelik
Velež
Premijer Liga
- D0-0Siroki Brijeg9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
- W1-0FK Sarajevo13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo6 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Bijeljina2 September 2026
Čelik
Premijer Liga
- L0-3Zrinjski18 October 2026
- D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo18 September 2026
- W3-2Radnik Bijeljina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to BSK Banja Luka5 September 2026
What these results say
- Velež failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Velež had two goals or fewer.
- Čelik failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Čelik conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 7 | Čelik | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Velež vs Čelik
- 28 August 2026Čelik 3–0 VeležPremijer Liga
- 25 October 2019Čelik 0–2 VeležPremijer Liga
- 3 August 2019Velež 1–2 ČelikPremijer Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Velež carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.07 for Čelik. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Velež and 1.13 for Čelik. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Velež rate 0.40 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Čelik rate 0.47 and 2.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Čelik, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velež the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Velež against 1.13 for Čelik. Velež's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.24 for Čelik.
How the model reaches 42% for Velež to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Velež to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Velež's ratings take away 33 points and Čelik's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Velež's ratings11%−33
- Čelik's ratings42%+31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Velež at home · Čelik away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Velež 9, Čelik 10.
Velež score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Čelik have let in 3 there.
Čelik score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Velež have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Velež
- at Radnik Bijeljina21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 37%
Čelik
- vs Sloga Doboj21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 54%
- vs BSK Banja Luka28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 46%
- at Radnik Bijeljina2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.