FK Sarajevo
vs
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Sarajevo 1–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
The model makes it 51% FK Sarajevo, 28% draw, 21% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FK Sarajevo 1.54, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0.80.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FK Sarajevo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FK Sarajevo are 3rd on 14 points from 9 games; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are 4th on 12 points from 9 games — Premijer Liga.
- FK Sarajevo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Čelik.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Radnik Bijeljina.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Sarajevo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–0 FK Sarajevo.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Sarajevo at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
- D0-0away to Čelik11 October 2026
- W2-0Sloga Doboj20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velež13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo9 September 2026
- W1-0Borac Banja Luka6 September 2026
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- L1-3away to Radnik Bijeljina11 October 2026
- D1-1Čelik18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sloga Doboj13 September 2026
- W2-0FK Sarajevo9 September 2026
- W3-1Velež6 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for FK Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 14 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FK Sarajevo
Chance to finish in the top four · 83% today
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Chance to finish in the top four · 37% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 9 September 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 25 May 2026FK Sarajevo 1–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 4 April 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 7 December 2025FK Sarajevo 4–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 27 September 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 27 April 2025FK Sarajevo 2–1 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
The two sides
FK Sarajevo carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.14 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for FK Sarajevo and 0.80 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Sarajevo rate 0.49 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo rate 0.47 and 1.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Sarajevo a 1.2% chance of the title and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Sarajevo the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FK Sarajevo against 0.80 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. FK Sarajevo's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.93 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FK Sarajevo at home · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: FK Sarajevo 9, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 9.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); FK Sarajevo have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FK Sarajevo
- at BSK Banja Luka31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 41%
- at Zrinjski7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 20%
- vs Siroki Brijeg21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 54%
- at Borac Banja Luka28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 18%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- vs Zrinjski31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 25%
- at Siroki Brijeg7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 31%
- vs Borac Banja Luka21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 22%
- at Velež28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.