Sloga Doboj
vs
BSK Banja Luka
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Sloga Doboj 1–2 BSK Banja Luka
The model makes it 34% Sloga Doboj, 27% draw, 39% BSK Banja Luka — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sloga Doboj 1.34, BSK Banja Luka 1.50.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
Edge to BSK Banja Luka: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Sloga Doboj's rating is built from 46 Bosnian Premier League matches and BSK Banja Luka's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sloga Doboj are 8th on 9 points from 10 games; BSK Banja Luka are 6th on 9 points from 10 games — Premijer Liga.
- Sloga Doboj have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Siroki Brijeg.
- BSK Banja Luka are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sloga Doboj vs BSK Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts BSK Banja Luka at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sloga Doboj vs BSK Banja Luka
Sloga Doboj
Premijer Liga
- L0-1Siroki Brijeg16 October 2026
- L2-6Zrinjski11 October 2026
- L0-2away to FK Sarajevo20 September 2026
- L1-2Borac Banja Luka16 September 2026
- D1-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo13 September 2026
BSK Banja Luka
Premijer Liga
- D1-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka10 October 2026
- D4-4Radnik Bijeljina19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Siroki Brijeg12 September 2026
- W3-2Čelik5 September 2026
What these results say
- Sloga Doboj did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sloga Doboj conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 |
| 6 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sloga Doboj vs BSK Banja Luka
- 29 August 2026BSK Banja Luka 0–1 Sloga DobojPremijer Liga
The two sides
Sloga Doboj carry a model rating of 5.88 against 6.08 for BSK Banja Luka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Sloga Doboj and 1.50 for BSK Banja Luka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sloga Doboj rate 0.33 in attack and 2.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BSK Banja Luka rate 0.53 and 2.50.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSK Banja Luka the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sloga Doboj against 1.50 for BSK Banja Luka. Sloga Doboj's attack/defence rating is 0.33/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.5 for BSK Banja Luka.
How the model reaches 39% for BSK Banja Luka to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for BSK Banja Luka to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Sloga Doboj's ratings add 49 points and BSK Banja Luka's ratings take away 39 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Sloga Doboj's ratings78%+49
- BSK Banja Luka's ratings39%−39
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sloga Doboj at home · BSK Banja Luka away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Sloga Doboj 10, BSK Banja Luka 10.
BSK Banja Luka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sloga Doboj have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sloga Doboj
- at Čelik21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 20%
- vs Radnik Bijeljina28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 35%
- at Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 17%
BSK Banja Luka
- vs Zrinjski21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 20%
- at Čelik28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- vs Siroki Brijeg2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.