Siroki Brijeg
vs
Čelik
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Siroki Brijeg 2–1 Čelik
The model makes it 41% Siroki Brijeg, 27% draw, 32% Čelik — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Siroki Brijeg 1.56, Čelik 1.29.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Siroki Brijeg are 5th on 10 points from 9 games; Čelik are 6th on 9 points from 9 games — Premijer Liga.
- Siroki Brijeg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Velež.
- Čelik are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FK Sarajevo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 August 2026, ended Čelik 1–2 Siroki Brijeg.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Siroki Brijeg at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik
Siroki Brijeg
- D0-0away to Velež9 October 2026
- L2-3Borac Banja Luka20 September 2026
- D1-1BSK Banja Luka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zrinjski6 September 2026
- L1-2FK Sarajevo2 September 2026
Čelik
- D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo18 September 2026
- W3-2Radnik Bijeljina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to BSK Banja Luka5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sloga Doboj1 September 2026
What these results say
- Siroki Brijeg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Čelik failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Čelik | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Siroki Brijeg
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
Čelik
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik
- 14 August 2026Čelik 1–2 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 5 October 2019Čelik 2–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 22 July 2019Siroki Brijeg 0–1 ČelikPremijer Liga
- 25 May 2019Čelik 1–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 21 October 2018Čelik 1–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 5 August 2018Siroki Brijeg 6–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Siroki Brijeg carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.15 for Čelik. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Siroki Brijeg and 1.29 for Čelik. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Siroki Brijeg rate 0.47 in attack and 2.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Čelik rate 0.50 and 2.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Siroki Brijeg the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Siroki Brijeg against 1.29 for Čelik. Siroki Brijeg's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.04 for Čelik.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Siroki Brijeg at home · Čelik away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Siroki Brijeg 9, Čelik 9.
Čelik score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Siroki Brijeg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Siroki Brijeg
- at Radnik Bijeljina31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 32%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 41%
- at FK Sarajevo21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 19%
- vs Zrinjski28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 23%
Čelik
- vs Borac Banja Luka31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 22%
- at Velež7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 33%
- vs Sloga Doboj21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 57%
- vs BSK Banja Luka28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.