BSK Banja Luka
vs
FK Sarajevo
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: BSK Banja Luka 0–1 FK Sarajevo
The model makes it 31% BSK Banja Luka, 28% draw, 41% FK Sarajevo — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: BSK Banja Luka 1.20, FK Sarajevo 1.47.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FK Sarajevo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- BSK Banja Luka are 7th on 9 points from 10 games; FK Sarajevo are 3rd on 15 points from 10 games — Premijer Liga.
- BSK Banja Luka are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
- FK Sarajevo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Radnik Bijeljina.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: BSK Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Sarajevo at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into BSK Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka
- D1-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka10 October 2026
- D4-4Radnik Bijeljina19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Siroki Brijeg12 September 2026
- W3-2Čelik5 September 2026
FK Sarajevo
- D1-1away to Radnik Bijeljina17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Čelik11 October 2026
- W2-0Sloga Doboj20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velež13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo9 September 2026
What these results say
- BSK Banja Luka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FK Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
- FK Sarajevo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
BSK Banja Luka
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
FK Sarajevo
Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: BSK Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo
- 21 August 2026FK Sarajevo 1–0 BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga
The two sides
BSK Banja Luka carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.33 for FK Sarajevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for BSK Banja Luka and 1.47 for FK Sarajevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
BSK Banja Luka rate 0.52 in attack and 2.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Sarajevo rate 0.49 and 1.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives BSK Banja Luka a 0% chance of the title and FK Sarajevo 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Sarajevo the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for BSK Banja Luka against 1.47 for FK Sarajevo. BSK Banja Luka's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.42 for FK Sarajevo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
BSK Banja Luka at home · FK Sarajevo away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: BSK Banja Luka 10, FK Sarajevo 10.
BSK Banja Luka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FK Sarajevo have let in 1 there.
FK Sarajevo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); BSK Banja Luka have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
BSK Banja Luka
- at Sloga Doboj7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 39%
- vs Zrinjski21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 22%
- at Čelik28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 25%
- vs Siroki Brijeg2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 43%
FK Sarajevo
- at Zrinjski7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 20%
- vs Siroki Brijeg21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 53%
- at Borac Banja Luka28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 18%
- vs Velež2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.