Zorya Luhansk
vs
LNZ Cherkasy
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Zorya Luhansk 1–0 LNZ Cherkasy
The model makes it 37% Zorya Luhansk, 29% draw, 34% LNZ Cherkasy — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zorya Luhansk 1.26, LNZ Cherkasy 1.19.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Zorya Luhansk's rating is built from 39 Ukrainian Premier League matches and LNZ Cherkasy's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Zorya Luhansk are 7th on 14 points from 9 games; LNZ Cherkasy are 6th on 14 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Zorya Luhansk have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Chornomorets.
- LNZ Cherkasy have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Kryvbas KR.
- Last 6 meetings: LNZ Cherkasy 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 December 2025, ended LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 Zorya Luhansk.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zorya Luhansk at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy
Zorya Luhansk
Premier League
- W2-1Chornomorets17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Livyi Bereh12 October 2026
- L0-2Dynamo Kyiv19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bukovyna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Veres Rivne6 September 2026
LNZ Cherkasy
Premier League
- W3-0away to Kryvbas KR18 October 2026
- W2-1Kudrivka11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Shakhtar Donetsk20 September 2026
- W3-1Obolon'-Brovar12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Dynamo Kyiv6 September 2026
What these results say
- Zorya Luhansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Zorya Luhansk.
- 4 of these 5 matches for LNZ Cherkasy had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy
- 13 December 2025LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 2 August 2025Zorya Luhansk 0–0 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- 4 May 2025LNZ Cherkasy 1–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 4 November 2024Zorya Luhansk 1–2 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- 19 May 2024LNZ Cherkasy 2–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 12 November 2023Zorya Luhansk 1–2 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
Leading scorers: Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy
Zorya Luhansk
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
LNZ Cherkasy
GoalsAssists
- T. Cara20
- P. Yade20
- Talles20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zorya Luhansk carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.56 for LNZ Cherkasy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.19 for LNZ Cherkasy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zorya Luhansk rate 0.70 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; LNZ Cherkasy rate 0.60 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour LNZ Cherkasy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zorya Luhansk the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk against 1.19 for LNZ Cherkasy. Zorya Luhansk's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.11 for LNZ Cherkasy.
How the model reaches 37% for Zorya Luhansk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zorya Luhansk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Zorya Luhansk's ratings take away 21 points and LNZ Cherkasy's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Zorya Luhansk's ratings23%−21
- LNZ Cherkasy's ratings37%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zorya Luhansk at home · LNZ Cherkasy away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Zorya Luhansk 9, LNZ Cherkasy 9.
Zorya Luhansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); LNZ Cherkasy have let in 5 there.
LNZ Cherkasy score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Zorya Luhansk have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Zorya Luhansk
- at Karpaty21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- at Obolon'-Brovar28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- vs Kudrivka5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 60%
LNZ Cherkasy
- vs Polessya21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs Kolos Kovalivka5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.