Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Zorya Luhansk
The model makes it 75% Shakhtar Donetsk, 16% draw, 9% Zorya Luhansk — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.96, Zorya Luhansk 0.79.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shakhtar Donetsk are top on 21 points from 8 games; Zorya Luhansk are 6th on 11 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Veres Rivne.
- Zorya Luhansk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Livyi Bereh.
- Last 6 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Zorya Luhansk 1–2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 75% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
Shakhtar Donetsk
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
- W3-0LNZ Cherkasy20 September 2026
- W2-0Chornomorets14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Karpaty5 September 2026
- L0-2Polessya29 August 2026
Zorya Luhansk
- W3-1away to Livyi Bereh12 October 2026
- L0-2Dynamo Kyiv19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bukovyna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Veres Rivne6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Kharkiv31 August 2026
What these results say
- Shakhtar Donetsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 21 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shakhtar Donetsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 80% today
Zorya Luhansk
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
- 23 April 2026Zorya Luhansk 1–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 22 September 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 9 May 2025Zorya Luhansk 0–0 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 10 November 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 30 October 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Zorya LuhanskCup
- 22 April 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- Pedrinho11
Zorya Luhansk
GoalsAssists
- Artem Machelyuk10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Shakhtar Donetsk carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.43 for Zorya Luhansk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.96 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.79 for Zorya Luhansk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.09 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zorya Luhansk rate 0.71 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 80.4% chance of the title and Zorya Luhansk 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 0.79 for Zorya Luhansk. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.67 for Zorya Luhansk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shakhtar Donetsk at home · Zorya Luhansk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 8, Zorya Luhansk 8.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Zorya Luhansk have let in 4 there.
Zorya Luhansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Shakhtar Donetsk
- at Obolon'-Brovar31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 75%
- vs Sporting CP3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
Zorya Luhansk
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- vs LNZ Cherkasy7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Karpaty21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- at Obolon'-Brovar28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.