FC Kharkiv
vs
Karpaty
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Kharkiv 1–0 Karpaty
The model makes it 47% FC Kharkiv, 28% draw, 25% Karpaty — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Kharkiv 1.54, Karpaty 0.95.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Kharkiv's rating is built from 38 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Karpaty's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Kharkiv are 4th on 18 points from 8 games; Karpaty are 5th on 15 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- FC Kharkiv are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Livyi Bereh.
- Karpaty are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
- Last 3 meetings: FC Kharkiv 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended FC Kharkiv 2–2 Karpaty.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Kharkiv at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty
FC Kharkiv
Premier League
- W2-1Livyi Bereh19 October 2026
- W2-1away to Chornomorets10 October 2026
- W2-0Bukovyna19 September 2026
- W5-0Obolon'-Brovar5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Zorya Luhansk31 August 2026
Karpaty
Premier League
- D2-2Epitsentr Dunayivtsi18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv11 October 2026
- D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kolos Kovalivka11 September 2026
- L1-2Shakhtar Donetsk5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Kharkiv won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Kharkiv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Kharkiv had three goals or more.
- Karpaty failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karpaty scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karpaty conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 18 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty
- 12 May 2026FC Kharkiv 2–2 KarpatyPremier League
- 22 November 2025Karpaty 1–2 FC KharkivPremier League
- 5 July 2024Karpaty 0–1 FC KharkivFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: FC Kharkiv and Karpaty
FC Kharkiv
GoalsAssists
- B. Zabërgja31
- P. Itodo21
- C. Paraco20
Karpaty
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Kharkiv carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.58 for Karpaty. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.95 for Karpaty. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Kharkiv rate 0.75 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karpaty rate 0.74 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Kharkiv a 2.9% chance of the title and Karpaty 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Kharkiv the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FC Kharkiv against 0.95 for Karpaty. FC Kharkiv's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.26 for Karpaty.
How the model reaches 47% for FC Kharkiv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Kharkiv to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Kharkiv's ratings take away 10 points and Karpaty's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC Kharkiv's ratings34%−10
- Karpaty's ratings47%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Kharkiv at home · Karpaty away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Kharkiv 8, Karpaty 9.
FC Kharkiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Karpaty have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Kharkiv
- at Kolos Kovalivka21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Kryvbas KR25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Kudrivka28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 54%
Karpaty
- vs Zorya Luhansk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- vs Polessya28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Obolon'-Brovar5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.