Polessya
vs
Veres Rivne
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Polessya 2–0 Veres Rivne
The model makes it 72% Polessya, 19% draw, 9% Veres Rivne — fair odds of 1.39, 5.26 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Polessya 2.42, Veres Rivne 0.58.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
One-sided: Polessya are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Polessya's rating is built from 40 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Veres Rivne's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Polessya are top on 25 points from 10 games; Veres Rivne are 10th on 9 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Polessya are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Obolon'-Brovar.
- Veres Rivne are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Kolos Kovalivka.
- Last 6 meetings: Polessya 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Polessya 1–1 Veres Rivne.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Polessya vs Veres Rivne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polessya at 72% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Polessya vs Veres Rivne
Polessya
Premier League
- W3-0Obolon'-Brovar23 October 2026
- W3-1Dynamo Kyiv18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Bukovyna11 October 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026
- W1-0Livyi Bereh13 September 2026
Veres Rivne
Premier League
- L0-2Kolos Kovalivka23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Obolon'-Brovar16 October 2026
- L0-3Shakhtar Donetsk9 October 2026
- W2-1Kudrivka3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Karpaty20 September 2026
What these results say
- Polessya went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polessya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polessya won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Veres Rivne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Veres Rivne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 25 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Polessya vs Veres Rivne
- 5 April 2026Polessya 1–1 Veres RivnePremier League
- 29 September 2025Veres Rivne 1–4 PolessyaPremier League
- 2 April 2025Veres Rivne 0–1 PolessyaCup
- 11 March 2025Veres Rivne 5–1 PolessyaPremier League
- 12 October 2024Polessya 0–0 Veres RivneFriendlies Clubs
- 15 September 2024Polessya 2–1 Veres RivnePremier League
Leading scorers: Polessya and Veres Rivne
Polessya
GoalsAssists
- I. Krasnopir40
Veres Rivne
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Polessya carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.19 for Veres Rivne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for Polessya and 0.58 for Veres Rivne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polessya rate 0.89 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Veres Rivne rate 0.43 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polessya a 10% chance of the title and Veres Rivne 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polessya the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Polessya against 0.58 for Veres Rivne. Polessya's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.67 for Veres Rivne.
How the model reaches 72% for Polessya to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Polessya to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Polessya's ratings take away 6 points and Veres Rivne's ratings add 34 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Polessya's ratings38%−6
- Veres Rivne's ratings72%+34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Polessya at home · Veres Rivne away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Polessya 10, Veres Rivne 10.
Polessya score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Veres Rivne have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Polessya
- at LNZ Cherkasy21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Karpaty28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 69%
- vs Chornomorets12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 69%
Veres Rivne
- vs Bukovyna21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Kryvbas KR28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Livyi Bereh5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs FC Kharkiv12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.